Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles — Prediction & Odds

August 23, 2026 · Nick Martinez vs Shane Baz · 80°F

2.4% edge · Baltimore Orioles

Tampa Bay Rays win

47.2%

Baltimore Orioles win

52.8%

Fair line (home)

-112

Proj. total

10.23

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Tampa Bay Rays (mean 5.09)Baltimore Orioles (mean 5.14)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

10.23

Over

51.6%

Under

38.1%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Tampa Bay Rays	47.2%	-102	+112
Baltimore Orioles	52.8%	-106	-112

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Nick Martinez RHP · Tampa Bay Rays	5.3	4.1	6.1	1.5	3.2
Shane Baz RHP · Baltimore Orioles	5.4	4.2	6.0	2.2	2.9

Strikeout ladder

Nick Martinez4+ 60%6+ 23%8+ 5%

Shane Baz4+ 61%6+ 24%8+ 5%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Tampa Bay Rays — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Yandy Díaz	4.9	.929	.209	.011	.194	.482	.698	.306	.380	.491	.871
Jonathan Aranda	4.8	.805	.197	.003	.188	.513	1.142	.281	.366	.462	.828
Junior Caminero	4.7	.702	.181	.010	.351	.441	.846	.293	.362	.589	.951
Liam Hicks	4.6	.777	.162	.013	.137	.514	.584	.271	.364	.420	.785
Chandler Simpson	4.5	1.099	.143	.050	.018	.237	.431	.308	.347	.379	.725
Jonny DeLuca	4.4	.661	.202	.025	.160	.283	.861	.257	.311	.437	.748
Cedric Mullins	4.3	.574	.149	.030	.157	.386	.926	.237	.313	.414	.726
Richie Palacios	4.2	.634	.157	.025	.091	.474	.779	.249	.342	.381	.722
Taylor Walls	4.0	.554	.140	.026	.063	.424	.960	.218	.304	.323	.627

Baltimore Orioles — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jackson Holliday	4.6	.753	.179	.025	.161	.396	.877	.268	.336	.439	.776
Pete Alonso	4.5	.645	.186	.006	.319	.366	.870	.285	.354	.570	.924
Gunnar Henderson	4.4	.685	.198	.032	.229	.358	.745	.287	.353	.526	.878
Samuel Basallo	4.3	.625	.169	.011	.281	.280	.875	.273	.326	.533	.859
Coby Mayo	4.2	.557	.171	.029	.256	.279	1.008	.262	.319	.520	.839
Dylan Beavers	4.1	.646	.167	.012	.158	.366	.797	.267	.337	.448	.785
Christian Encarnacion-Strand	4.0	.591	.176	.017	.237	.143	.917	.270	.303	.513	.817
Colton Cowser	3.8	.531	.142	.005	.200	.331	1.020	.253	.324	.469	.793
Leody Taveras	3.7	.601	.119	.037	.111	.230	.719	.250	.299	.401	.700

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections