Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles — Prediction & Odds

August 22, 2026 · Shane McClanahan vs Brandon Young · 76°F

1.4% edge · Tampa Bay Rays

Tampa Bay Rays win

55.9%

Baltimore Orioles win

44.1%

Fair line (home)

+127

Proj. total

9.25

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Tampa Bay Rays (mean 5.08)Baltimore Orioles (mean 4.18)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

9.25

Over

53.1%

Under

39.3%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Tampa Bay Rays	55.9%	-125	-127
Baltimore Orioles	44.1%	+115	+127

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Shane McClanahan LHP · Tampa Bay Rays	4.7	5.4	4.3	1.7	2.0
Brandon Young RHP · Baltimore Orioles	5.3	3.6	6.1	2.0	2.9

Strikeout ladder

Shane McClanahan4+ 81%6+ 45%8+ 16%

Brandon Young4+ 49%6+ 14%8+ 2%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Tampa Bay Rays — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Yandy Díaz	4.9	.943	.206	.011	.198	.450	.647	.307	.376	.493	.869
Jonathan Aranda	4.8	.818	.194	.004	.190	.485	1.058	.282	.362	.463	.825
Chandler Simpson	4.7	1.135	.149	.060	.018	.237	.411	.306	.343	.379	.722
Junior Caminero	4.6	.685	.179	.009	.355	.412	.774	.296	.362	.599	.961
Liam Hicks	4.5	.776	.161	.013	.135	.469	.513	.274	.359	.423	.783
Jonny DeLuca	4.4	.673	.196	.022	.155	.271	.792	.256	.307	.429	.736
Richie Palacios	4.3	.657	.168	.025	.090	.470	.743	.250	.338	.379	.718
Cedric Mullins	4.2	.586	.158	.026	.160	.360	.830	.247	.317	.430	.748
Taylor Walls	4.0	.574	.147	.026	.066	.414	.904	.226	.308	.336	.644

Baltimore Orioles — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jackson Holliday	4.5	.647	.165	.021	.134	.472	1.081	.240	.324	.390	.714
Pete Alonso	4.4	.565	.163	.004	.272	.438	1.073	.256	.341	.507	.848
Coby Mayo	4.3	.513	.157	.030	.218	.338	1.305	.233	.300	.454	.753
Tyler O'Neill	4.2	.524	.129	.007	.207	.431	1.231	.231	.316	.434	.751
Gunnar Henderson	4.1	.579	.165	.028	.189	.399	.909	.261	.339	.475	.814
Christian Encarnacion-Strand	4.0	.537	.161	.014	.210	.169	1.145	.242	.280	.456	.737
Christian Franklin	3.9	.557	.126	.022	.071	.387	1.084	.223	.308	.333	.641
Leody Taveras	3.8	.572	.116	.029	.103	.254	.918	.233	.288	.371	.658
Carlos Narváez	3.7	.462	.125	.004	.106	.308	1.094	.210	.285	.346	.631

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections