Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles — Prediction & Odds

September 4, 2026 · Ranger Suarez vs Shane Baz · 86°F

3.3% edge · Boston Red Sox

Boston Red Sox win

54.0%

Baltimore Orioles win

46.0%

Fair line (home)

+117

Proj. total

9.28

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Boston Red Sox (mean 4.95)Baltimore Orioles (mean 4.33)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

9.28

Over

53.1%

Under

39.0%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Boston Red Sox	54.0%	-107	-117
Baltimore Orioles	46.0%	-101	+117

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Ranger Suarez LHP · Boston Red Sox	4.9	5.3	5.0	1.5	2.3
Shane Baz RHP · Baltimore Orioles	5.5	5.0	5.8	2.3	2.9

Strikeout ladder

Ranger Suarez4+ 79%6+ 43%8+ 15%

Shane Baz4+ 74%6+ 38%8+ 12%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Boston Red Sox — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Roman Anthony	4.9	.728	.227	.038	.171	.635	1.185	.276	.376	.469	.845
Mickey Gasper	4.8	.729	.210	.014	.168	.528	.842	.267	.357	.443	.800
Adley Rutschman	4.7	.695	.207	.019	.160	.534	.729	.263	.352	.440	.791
Wilyer Abreu	4.6	.610	.220	.024	.222	.487	1.014	.265	.348	.496	.843
Nick Sogard	4.5	.715	.183	.019	.076	.475	.943	.251	.336	.365	.701
Caleb Durbin	4.3	.714	.204	.017	.124	.342	.538	.270	.343	.426	.769
Jarren Duran	4.2	.596	.186	.058	.142	.335	1.045	.254	.321	.442	.763
Trevor Story	4.1	.617	.188	.006	.143	.244	1.138	.248	.298	.411	.709
Eli White	4.0	.633	.138	.029	.131	.254	.985	.250	.304	.408	.712

Baltimore Orioles — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Blaze Alexander	4.6	.760	.180	.027	.108	.335	1.240	.257	.325	.391	.715
Coby Mayo	4.5	.583	.175	.032	.199	.356	1.313	.243	.310	.448	.758
Luis Robert Jr.	4.4	.678	.168	.007	.176	.316	1.183	.256	.317	.433	.750
Pete Alonso	4.3	.589	.165	.005	.229	.440	1.014	.263	.351	.492	.843
Gunnar Henderson	4.2	.634	.176	.030	.161	.406	.886	.269	.347	.462	.808
Christian Encarnacion-Strand	4.1	.608	.176	.016	.188	.182	1.130	.256	.296	.456	.753
Jackson Holliday	3.9	.614	.160	.017	.096	.394	.908	.252	.332	.388	.720
Carlos Narváez	3.8	.520	.146	.003	.103	.329	1.134	.223	.298	.356	.654
Leody Taveras	3.7	.606	.125	.026	.090	.254	.896	.246	.300	.376	.676

Data notes: game-time temp 86F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections