Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles — Prediction & Odds

September 3, 2026 · Jake Bennett vs Brandon Young · 86°F

1.8% edge · Baltimore Orioles

Boston Red Sox win

51.0%

Baltimore Orioles win

49.0%

Fair line (home)

+104

Proj. total

9.92

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Boston Red Sox (mean 5.12)Baltimore Orioles (mean 4.80)

Totals

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

9.92

Over

58.9%

Under

41.1%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Boston Red Sox	51.0%	-117	-104
Baltimore Orioles	49.0%	+108	+104

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Jake Bennett LHP · Boston Red Sox	5.2	4.7	5.9	1.4	2.8
Brandon Young RHP · Baltimore Orioles	5.3	3.9	6.0	2.0	2.9

Strikeout ladder

Jake Bennett4+ 70%6+ 33%8+ 9%

Brandon Young4+ 55%6+ 19%8+ 4%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Boston Red Sox — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Roman Anthony	4.9	.757	.235	.036	.190	.625	1.093	.285	.380	.490	.870
Mickey Gasper	4.8	.784	.224	.015	.136	.455	.821	.269	.345	.422	.767
Adley Rutschman	4.7	.740	.216	.021	.163	.535	.640	.275	.361	.455	.816
Wilyer Abreu	4.6	.651	.216	.023	.248	.472	.911	.277	.354	.521	.875
Nick Sogard	4.5	.735	.193	.021	.066	.469	.847	.255	.337	.364	.701
Caleb Durbin	4.4	.748	.220	.019	.136	.313	.482	.281	.345	.448	.793
Jarren Duran	4.3	.615	.206	.058	.145	.333	.981	.263	.327	.458	.785
Eli White	4.2	.682	.142	.032	.150	.268	.923	.260	.313	.430	.743
Isiah Kiner-Falefa	4.0	.819	.159	.018	.059	.224	.574	.279	.325	.377	.702

Baltimore Orioles — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Blaze Alexander	4.6	.819	.189	.029	.116	.319	1.141	.273	.336	.414	.750
Coby Mayo	4.5	.613	.190	.035	.238	.341	1.184	.260	.323	.495	.819
Luis Robert Jr.	4.4	.690	.173	.008	.184	.310	1.112	.260	.319	.443	.761
Pete Alonso	4.3	.640	.181	.004	.266	.399	.904	.285	.363	.543	.906
Gunnar Henderson	4.2	.663	.194	.029	.181	.375	.795	.282	.353	.492	.844
Christian Encarnacion-Strand	4.1	.635	.185	.020	.215	.168	1.008	.272	.309	.496	.805
Leody Taveras	4.0	.690	.143	.033	.103	.253	.813	.260	.311	.399	.710
Dylan Beavers	3.9	.637	.168	.012	.118	.396	.818	.271	.350	.429	.779
Carlos Narváez	3.8	.531	.151	.004	.110	.302	.996	.234	.304	.377	.681

Data notes: game-time temp 86F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections