Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles — Prediction & Odds

September 5, 2026 · Sonny Gray vs Chris Bassitt · 80°F

1.7% edge · Baltimore Orioles

Boston Red Sox win

52.2%

Baltimore Orioles win

47.8%

Fair line (home)

+109

Proj. total

9.14

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Boston Red Sox (mean 4.75)Baltimore Orioles (mean 4.39)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

9.14

Over

52.2%

Under

40.0%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Boston Red Sox	52.2%	-122	-109
Baltimore Orioles	47.8%	+113	+109

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Sonny Gray RHP · Boston Red Sox	5.3	6.0	5.5	1.5	2.6
Chris Bassitt RHP · Baltimore Orioles	5.0	4.3	5.4	1.9	2.6

Strikeout ladder

Sonny Gray4+ 86%6+ 57%8+ 25%

Chris Bassitt4+ 63%6+ 25%8+ 6%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Boston Red Sox — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Roman Anthony	4.9	.747	.225	.040	.161	.626	1.083	.279	.379	.466	.845
Mickey Gasper	4.8	.736	.213	.014	.145	.525	.799	.266	.359	.428	.787
Wilyer Abreu	4.7	.652	.220	.028	.221	.488	.948	.271	.352	.497	.850
Trevor Story	4.6	.700	.213	.006	.156	.258	1.191	.253	.304	.416	.720
Nick Sogard	4.5	.716	.187	.019	.065	.474	.874	.251	.337	.358	.695
Isiah Kiner-Falefa	4.3	.860	.175	.018	.056	.251	.651	.275	.326	.368	.694
Jarren Duran	4.2	.582	.194	.057	.132	.335	1.001	.251	.321	.435	.756
Eli White	4.1	.652	.142	.033	.130	.275	.942	.252	.311	.410	.721
Connor Wong	4.0	.641	.185	.009	.097	.293	.917	.256	.323	.392	.716

Baltimore Orioles — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jackson Holliday	4.6	.722	.182	.020	.120	.428	1.103	.253	.328	.395	.723
Blaze Alexander	4.5	.737	.169	.023	.104	.304	1.293	.252	.314	.381	.695
Gunnar Henderson	4.4	.655	.198	.031	.180	.393	.980	.271	.343	.475	.817
Pete Alonso	4.3	.585	.165	.004	.238	.399	1.093	.261	.342	.495	.837
Samuel Basallo	4.2	.575	.152	.009	.214	.313	1.123	.249	.311	.462	.773
Heston Kjerstad	4.1	.641	.164	.015	.140	.208	1.108	.252	.300	.414	.714
Christian Encarnacion-Strand	3.9	.570	.167	.018	.185	.169	1.154	.251	.290	.454	.744
Dylan Beavers	3.8	.577	.155	.009	.124	.398	.957	.255	.337	.416	.753
Colton Cowser	3.7	.500	.127	.005	.141	.329	1.208	.232	.306	.399	.706

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections