Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles — Prediction & Odds

September 6, 2026 · Payton Tolle vs Kyle Bradish · 70°F

2.6% edge · Baltimore Orioles

Boston Red Sox win

52.4%

Baltimore Orioles win

47.6%

Fair line (home)

+110

Proj. total

8.29

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Boston Red Sox (mean 4.34)Baltimore Orioles (mean 3.95)

Totals

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

8.29

Over

52.0%

Under

48.0%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Boston Red Sox	52.4%	-128	-110
Baltimore Orioles	47.6%	+118	+110

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Payton Tolle LHP · Boston Red Sox	5.4	6.8	4.9	1.6	2.3
Kyle Bradish RHP · Baltimore Orioles	5.3	5.0	5.2	2.2	2.3

Strikeout ladder

Payton Tolle4+ 92%6+ 69%8+ 37%

Kyle Bradish4+ 75%6+ 39%8+ 12%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Boston Red Sox — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Roman Anthony	4.8	.702	.218	.036	.135	.648	1.219	.262	.366	.429	.795
Mickey Gasper	4.7	.707	.195	.011	.136	.528	.896	.253	.346	.403	.749
Adley Rutschman	4.6	.689	.207	.021	.133	.554	.750	.259	.352	.419	.771
Trevor Story	4.5	.667	.198	.004	.128	.279	1.307	.237	.291	.377	.668
Nick Sogard	4.4	.674	.176	.020	.061	.497	.982	.240	.330	.342	.672
Caleb Durbin	4.3	.691	.203	.017	.103	.338	.570	.261	.335	.402	.737
Jarren Duran	4.2	.564	.181	.059	.117	.338	1.089	.241	.309	.411	.720
Andruw Monasterio	4.1	.655	.194	.012	.073	.359	.869	.253	.324	.371	.695
Eli White	4.0	.613	.135	.029	.110	.262	1.007	.241	.298	.383	.681

Baltimore Orioles — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Blaze Alexander	4.5	.687	.157	.021	.114	.347	1.369	.239	.310	.372	.682
Pete Alonso	4.4	.558	.157	.003	.260	.446	1.165	.252	.340	.496	.835
Coby Mayo	4.3	.510	.152	.028	.208	.348	1.379	.230	.300	.443	.743
Christian Encarnacion-Strand	4.2	.559	.166	.017	.199	.194	1.276	.238	.281	.438	.719
Gunnar Henderson	4.1	.556	.169	.028	.176	.415	.966	.256	.338	.463	.801
Rece Hinds	4.0	.526	.150	.009	.115	.271	1.352	.219	.281	.359	.640
Leody Taveras	3.9	.583	.113	.024	.095	.266	1.007	.228	.285	.352	.637
Carlos Narváez	3.7	.456	.131	.003	.103	.332	1.207	.206	.285	.339	.624
Colton Cowser	3.6	.451	.111	.004	.138	.359	1.231	.218	.303	.384	.687

Data notes: home batter Rece Hinds: only 38 effective PA (3yr weighted) · 19/20 lineup+starter talents from projections