Cleveland Guardians vs Baltimore Orioles — Prediction & Odds

September 7, 2026 · Joey Cantillo vs Trevor Rogers · 78°F

0.7% edge · Cleveland Guardians

Cleveland Guardians win

45.2%

Baltimore Orioles win

54.8%

Fair line (home)

-121

Proj. total

8.66

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Cleveland Guardians (mean 4.18)Baltimore Orioles (mean 4.48)

Totals

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

8.66

Over

55.9%

Under

44.1%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Cleveland Guardians	45.2%	+120	+121
Baltimore Orioles	54.8%	-131	-121

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Joey Cantillo LHP · Cleveland Guardians	4.7	5.5	4.6	2.3	2.3
Trevor Rogers LHP · Baltimore Orioles	5.4	4.0	5.4	1.5	2.3

Strikeout ladder

Joey Cantillo4+ 82%6+ 49%8+ 18%

Trevor Rogers4+ 58%6+ 21%8+ 5%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Cleveland Guardians — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Steven Kwan	4.7	.928	.198	.020	.069	.467	.425	.286	.360	.390	.750
Jo Adell	4.6	.635	.194	.013	.229	.266	1.095	.249	.302	.460	.763
José Ramírez	4.5	.727	.225	.009	.184	.396	.542	.280	.348	.474	.822
Angel Martínez	4.4	.696	.209	.011	.134	.193	.893	.252	.294	.404	.697
David Fry	4.3	.552	.170	.011	.153	.384	1.103	.228	.304	.396	.700
Angel Genao	4.2	.747	.190	.013	.085	.279	.756	.266	.319	.387	.707
Austin Hedges	4.1	.599	.123	.006	.103	.323	.877	.222	.289	.341	.631
Petey Halpin	4.0	.608	.159	.037	.096	.241	.935	.242	.292	.382	.674
Brayan Rocchio	3.9	.626	.165	.015	.079	.253	.609	.249	.309	.371	.680

Baltimore Orioles — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Blaze Alexander	4.6	.714	.163	.021	.108	.434	1.335	.245	.327	.374	.701
Pete Alonso	4.5	.581	.166	.004	.249	.554	1.107	.259	.362	.498	.860
Jackson Holliday	4.4	.635	.155	.019	.109	.537	1.053	.241	.339	.377	.716
Coby Mayo	4.3	.500	.157	.026	.203	.416	1.304	.232	.314	.446	.761
Gunnar Henderson	4.2	.587	.163	.028	.173	.500	.920	.261	.356	.465	.821
Christian Encarnacion-Strand	4.1	.557	.155	.017	.193	.235	1.189	.242	.293	.444	.737
Samuel Basallo	4.0	.506	.138	.007	.204	.392	1.058	.242	.323	.458	.781
Rece Hinds	3.9	.502	.149	.008	.110	.301	1.291	.220	.290	.361	.650
Dylan Beavers	3.7	.517	.137	.009	.121	.503	.898	.245	.350	.406	.756

Data notes: home batter Rece Hinds: only 41 effective PA (3yr weighted) · 19/20 lineup+starter talents from projections