Cleveland Guardians vs Baltimore Orioles — Prediction & Odds

September 8, 2026 · Tanner Bibee vs Brandon Young · 81°F

0.2% edge · Baltimore Orioles

Cleveland Guardians win

47.6%

Baltimore Orioles win

52.4%

Fair line (home)

-110

Proj. total

9.61

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Cleveland Guardians (mean 4.77)Baltimore Orioles (mean 4.84)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

9.61

Over

56.2%

Under

36.3%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Cleveland Guardians	47.6%	+105	+110
Baltimore Orioles	52.4%	-114	-110

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Tanner Bibee RHP · Cleveland Guardians	5.2	5.2	5.6	1.8	2.9
Brandon Young RHP · Baltimore Orioles	5.4	4.0	5.9	1.8	2.8

Strikeout ladder

Tanner Bibee4+ 78%6+ 43%8+ 15%

Brandon Young4+ 58%6+ 21%8+ 4%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Cleveland Guardians — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Steven Kwan	4.8	.962	.200	.020	.080	.504	.426	.293	.369	.404	.774
Travis Bazzana	4.7	.709	.220	.035	.122	.501	.998	.259	.342	.415	.757
José Ramírez	4.6	.742	.218	.013	.209	.450	.513	.286	.359	.496	.856
Jo Adell	4.5	.636	.184	.014	.259	.264	1.009	.261	.312	.497	.810
Nathaniel Lowe	4.4	.689	.165	.011	.174	.466	.953	.266	.347	.448	.794
Angel Martínez	4.3	.686	.202	.019	.150	.212	.839	.262	.306	.433	.739
Patrick Bailey	4.2	.639	.148	.024	.118	.328	1.011	.242	.305	.385	.690
Petey Halpin	4.1	.635	.162	.039	.106	.243	.922	.247	.295	.394	.689
Brayan Rocchio	4.0	.656	.174	.026	.086	.282	.590	.259	.320	.392	.712

Baltimore Orioles — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jackson Holliday	4.6	.733	.167	.021	.152	.446	1.032	.259	.336	.419	.755
Pete Alonso	4.5	.614	.178	.004	.295	.430	1.041	.273	.356	.541	.897
Gunnar Henderson	4.4	.649	.184	.028	.222	.404	.907	.274	.348	.503	.852
Coby Mayo	4.3	.542	.166	.029	.237	.331	1.210	.248	.315	.487	.802
Samuel Basallo	4.2	.567	.152	.009	.249	.324	1.037	.255	.320	.495	.815
Dylan Beavers	4.1	.609	.163	.009	.158	.446	.931	.260	.345	.440	.786
Blaze Alexander	4.0	.649	.144	.019	.104	.292	1.063	.253	.321	.390	.712
Colton Cowser	3.9	.514	.136	.005	.186	.372	1.167	.244	.325	.448	.773
Leody Taveras	3.8	.580	.125	.038	.110	.269	.857	.247	.304	.400	.705

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections