Cleveland Guardians vs Baltimore Orioles — Prediction & Odds

September 9, 2026 · Foster Griffin vs Shane Baz · 86°F

3.3% edge · Cleveland Guardians

Cleveland Guardians win

54.9%

Baltimore Orioles win

45.1%

Fair line (home)

+122

Proj. total

9.35

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Cleveland Guardians (mean 5.04)Baltimore Orioles (mean 4.30)

Totals

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

9.35

Over

53.5%

Under

46.5%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Cleveland Guardians	54.9%	-111	-122
Baltimore Orioles	45.1%	+103	+122

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Foster Griffin LHP · Cleveland Guardians	5.4	5.6	5.6	1.4	2.6
Shane Baz RHP · Baltimore Orioles	5.4	4.3	6.0	2.2	2.9

Strikeout ladder

Foster Griffin4+ 83%6+ 50%8+ 20%

Shane Baz4+ 63%6+ 27%8+ 6%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Cleveland Guardians — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Steven Kwan	4.9	.959	.202	.023	.077	.541	.480	.289	.371	.399	.771
Chase DeLauter	4.8	.862	.235	.026	.174	.482	.737	.301	.374	.489	.863
José Ramírez	4.7	.735	.224	.015	.205	.489	.565	.282	.361	.490	.850
Jo Adell	4.6	.640	.189	.012	.255	.287	1.111	.259	.316	.490	.805
Travis Bazzana	4.5	.656	.195	.031	.125	.513	1.016	.256	.348	.417	.765
Nathaniel Lowe	4.4	.669	.173	.009	.164	.500	1.036	.263	.351	.440	.792
Angel Genao	4.3	.749	.189	.021	.100	.343	.776	.271	.334	.407	.742
Patrick Bailey	4.2	.632	.145	.020	.110	.335	1.052	.238	.304	.374	.677
Brayan Rocchio	4.0	.656	.177	.025	.096	.300	.650	.259	.324	.398	.722

Baltimore Orioles — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Dylan Beavers	4.5	.707	.198	.012	.166	.452	1.057	.266	.345	.443	.788
Pete Alonso	4.4	.610	.173	.005	.266	.398	1.043	.266	.346	.513	.859
Coby Mayo	4.3	.573	.166	.029	.230	.309	1.265	.251	.313	.481	.794
Christian Encarnacion-Strand	4.2	.613	.180	.018	.215	.171	1.162	.255	.294	.469	.762
Jackson Holliday	4.1	.648	.160	.019	.120	.372	.940	.254	.327	.404	.731
Rece Hinds	4.0	.595	.173	.012	.118	.267	1.252	.242	.303	.391	.694
Jeremiah Jackson	3.9	.641	.169	.010	.127	.165	.840	.255	.295	.409	.703
Leody Taveras	3.8	.616	.123	.027	.106	.238	.900	.247	.298	.387	.685
Carlos Narváez	3.7	.495	.130	.003	.109	.291	1.088	.221	.294	.360	.654

Data notes: home batter Rece Hinds: only 45 effective PA (3yr weighted) · game-time temp 86F: run environment adjusted · 18/20 lineup+starter talents from projections