Milwaukee Brewers vs Baltimore Orioles — Prediction & Odds

September 18, 2026 · Dustin May vs Cade Povich · 80°F

5.8% edge · Baltimore Orioles

Milwaukee Brewers win

51.5%

Baltimore Orioles win

48.5%

Fair line (home)

+106

Proj. total

9.57

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Milwaukee Brewers (mean 4.96)Baltimore Orioles (mean 4.62)

Totals

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

9.57

Over

55.0%

Under

45.0%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Milwaukee Brewers	51.5%	-141	-106
Baltimore Orioles	48.5%	+130	+106

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Dustin May RHP · Milwaukee Brewers	4.7	5.3	4.7	1.8	2.4
Cade Povich LHP · Baltimore Orioles	4.5	4.0	4.9	1.9	2.3

Strikeout ladder

Dustin May4+ 79%6+ 44%8+ 15%

Cade Povich4+ 57%6+ 20%8+ 4%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Milwaukee Brewers — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jackson Chourio	4.9	.799	.247	.012	.234	.362	1.027	.284	.340	.498	.838
Brice Turang	4.8	.770	.202	.017	.135	.566	1.052	.266	.354	.417	.771
William Contreras	4.7	.782	.203	.009	.174	.545	.774	.283	.370	.463	.833
Andrew Vaughn	4.6	.725	.197	.017	.168	.402	.838	.266	.337	.443	.780
Christian Yelich	4.5	.693	.160	.011	.156	.506	1.084	.258	.346	.423	.769
Joey Ortiz	4.4	.715	.186	.028	.109	.367	.763	.261	.327	.404	.730
Garrett Mitchell	4.3	.620	.183	.030	.129	.474	1.249	.256	.345	.424	.769
Luis Lara	4.2	.712	.156	.030	.059	.377	.844	.256	.329	.361	.690
Cooper Pratt	4.0	.652	.140	.034	.089	.370	.759	.251	.325	.382	.707

Baltimore Orioles — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Dylan Beavers	4.6	.648	.181	.011	.162	.533	1.139	.249	.341	.419	.761
Pete Alonso	4.5	.579	.164	.004	.259	.494	1.077	.258	.356	.502	.858
Gunnar Henderson	4.4	.610	.179	.035	.183	.475	.955	.262	.352	.470	.822
Coby Mayo	4.3	.509	.164	.026	.234	.369	1.245	.242	.317	.480	.798
Samuel Basallo	4.2	.554	.150	.010	.221	.347	1.081	.247	.318	.467	.785
Christian Encarnacion-Strand	4.1	.579	.172	.012	.204	.203	1.152	.254	.301	.466	.766
Colton Cowser	4.0	.501	.132	.005	.164	.416	1.266	.229	.320	.411	.730
Jeremiah Jackson	3.9	.582	.171	.008	.152	.164	.919	.250	.289	.426	.715
Leody Taveras	3.7	.575	.115	.034	.088	.288	.926	.238	.302	.369	.671

Data notes: home starter Cade Povich: only 52 BF vs LHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections