Milwaukee Brewers vs Baltimore Orioles — Prediction & Odds

September 20, 2026 · Jacob Misiorowski vs Brandon Young · 74°F

4.2% edge · Baltimore Orioles

Milwaukee Brewers win

61.0%

Baltimore Orioles win

39.0%

Fair line (home)

+156

Proj. total

9.06

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Milwaukee Brewers (mean 5.21)Baltimore Orioles (mean 3.85)

Totals

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

9.06

Over

58.3%

Under

41.7%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Milwaukee Brewers	61.0%	-199	-156
Baltimore Orioles	39.0%	+181	+156

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Jacob Misiorowski RHP · Milwaukee Brewers	5.4	7.7	4.1	2.1	2.0
Brandon Young RHP · Baltimore Orioles	5.3	4.4	6.0	2.3	2.9

Strikeout ladder

Jacob Misiorowski4+ 96%6+ 82%8+ 52%

Brandon Young4+ 66%6+ 28%8+ 7%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Milwaukee Brewers — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jackson Chourio	5.0	.813	.247	.014	.244	.351	1.007	.287	.340	.505	.845
Brice Turang	4.8	.801	.201	.020	.145	.544	1.029	.272	.355	.429	.784
William Contreras	4.7	.799	.218	.009	.180	.541	.722	.288	.373	.474	.847
Jake Bauers	4.6	.591	.152	.015	.231	.677	1.198	.252	.366	.474	.841
Joey Ortiz	4.5	.754	.181	.043	.118	.365	.733	.265	.327	.415	.742
Christian Yelich	4.4	.714	.168	.013	.145	.484	1.024	.267	.352	.428	.780
Cooper Pratt	4.3	.708	.145	.041	.093	.391	.757	.254	.327	.384	.711
Garrett Mitchell	4.2	.626	.177	.029	.126	.461	1.204	.259	.346	.424	.770
Sal Frelick	4.1	.773	.185	.013	.075	.344	.491	.281	.347	.399	.746

Baltimore Orioles — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Dylan Beavers	4.5	.575	.168	.011	.124	.549	1.369	.223	.323	.366	.689
Pete Alonso	4.4	.507	.138	.004	.232	.499	1.346	.230	.333	.450	.783
Gunnar Henderson	4.3	.550	.167	.033	.162	.492	1.161	.241	.337	.432	.769
Coby Mayo	4.2	.451	.145	.021	.198	.377	1.486	.215	.294	.420	.714
Samuel Basallo	4.1	.479	.131	.009	.193	.351	1.290	.218	.293	.413	.707
Jeremiah Jackson	4.0	.561	.158	.008	.140	.176	1.166	.228	.269	.384	.654
Colton Cowser	3.9	.450	.118	.004	.140	.427	1.436	.208	.304	.368	.672
Leody Taveras	3.8	.527	.111	.033	.080	.301	1.108	.217	.284	.338	.621
Carlos Narváez	3.6	.410	.117	.004	.083	.341	1.281	.188	.275	.303	.578

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections