Milwaukee Brewers vs Baltimore Orioles — Prediction & Odds

September 19, 2026 · Robert Gasser vs Trevor Rogers · 76°F

2.4% edge · Baltimore Orioles

Milwaukee Brewers win

47.9%

Baltimore Orioles win

52.1%

Fair line (home)

-109

Proj. total

8.99

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Milwaukee Brewers (mean 4.48)Baltimore Orioles (mean 4.51)

Totals

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

8.99

Over

58.3%

Under

41.7%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Milwaukee Brewers	47.9%	-105	+109
Baltimore Orioles	52.1%	-103	-109

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Robert Gasser LHP · Milwaukee Brewers	5.0	5.3	5.0	1.4	2.6
Trevor Rogers LHP · Baltimore Orioles	5.3	4.6	5.5	1.8	2.4

Strikeout ladder

Robert Gasser4+ 79%6+ 45%8+ 16%

Trevor Rogers4+ 69%6+ 31%8+ 8%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Milwaukee Brewers — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jackson Chourio	4.8	.784	.239	.013	.208	.321	1.011	.277	.329	.476	.804
Garrett Mitchell	4.7	.691	.205	.037	.139	.463	1.394	.255	.335	.421	.757
William Contreras	4.6	.780	.204	.007	.164	.481	.771	.283	.362	.456	.818
Andrew Vaughn	4.5	.708	.192	.015	.146	.335	.827	.258	.321	.419	.739
Joey Ortiz	4.4	.721	.184	.032	.105	.337	.751	.259	.320	.399	.719
Gary Sánchez	4.3	.516	.134	.012	.204	.454	1.017	.230	.321	.434	.755
Cooper Pratt	4.2	.674	.135	.036	.085	.355	.772	.246	.315	.367	.683
Luis Lara	4.1	.708	.157	.025	.058	.343	.811	.258	.328	.362	.690
David Hamilton	3.9	.583	.131	.027	.089	.323	.921	.230	.296	.356	.652

Baltimore Orioles — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jeremiah Jackson	4.5	.678	.206	.010	.199	.176	1.025	.253	.289	.444	.732
Pete Alonso	4.4	.569	.164	.004	.272	.444	1.050	.261	.351	.516	.867
Coby Mayo	4.3	.527	.161	.026	.255	.354	1.221	.248	.321	.499	.820
Christian Encarnacion-Strand	4.2	.587	.182	.018	.225	.192	1.162	.255	.299	.480	.779
Gunnar Henderson	4.1	.586	.169	.033	.185	.418	.882	.267	.351	.484	.834
Rece Hinds	4.0	.522	.162	.020	.169	.232	1.247	.234	.287	.424	.712
Christian Franklin	3.9	.561	.134	.018	.074	.398	1.058	.229	.318	.343	.661
Samuel Basallo	3.8	.506	.131	.009	.211	.297	.967	.249	.316	.476	.792
Leody Taveras	3.6	.562	.118	.028	.096	.249	.875	.238	.294	.374	.668

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections