Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles — Prediction & Odds

September 21, 2026 · Trey Yesavage vs Shane Baz · 66°F

0.7% edge · Baltimore Orioles

Toronto Blue Jays win

49.3%

Baltimore Orioles win

50.7%

Fair line (home)

-103

Proj. total

8.85

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Toronto Blue Jays (mean 4.50)Baltimore Orioles (mean 4.35)

Totals

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

8.85

Over

56.9%

Under

43.1%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Toronto Blue Jays	49.3%	-104	+103
Baltimore Orioles	50.7%	-104	-103

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Trey Yesavage RHP · Toronto Blue Jays	4.9	5.9	4.3	2.3	2.4
Shane Baz RHP · Baltimore Orioles	5.5	4.3	5.7	2.0	2.6

Strikeout ladder

Trey Yesavage4+ 85%6+ 56%8+ 23%

Shane Baz4+ 64%6+ 27%8+ 7%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Toronto Blue Jays — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Brett Bateman	4.8	.895	.165	.020	.048	.532	1.060	.264	.349	.345	.694
Alejandro Kirk	4.7	.824	.172	.005	.163	.523	.593	.279	.363	.439	.802
Nathan Lukes	4.6	.846	.201	.011	.110	.341	.705	.276	.335	.407	.742
George Springer	4.5	.694	.169	.012	.177	.477	.814	.263	.348	.445	.793
Sean Keys	4.4	.566	.166	.019	.179	.388	1.233	.235	.314	.423	.737
Kazuma Okamoto	4.3	.559	.167	.003	.208	.391	1.025	.242	.318	.447	.765
Josh Smith	4.2	.617	.163	.013	.094	.434	.821	.240	.331	.368	.699
Andrés Giménez	4.1	.672	.177	.009	.088	.225	.732	.251	.309	.373	.682
Ernie Clement	4.0	.746	.195	.016	.070	.170	.389	.272	.308	.388	.696

Baltimore Orioles — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Dylan Beavers	4.6	.622	.166	.010	.142	.600	1.118	.239	.343	.395	.738
Pete Alonso	4.4	.540	.165	.004	.246	.549	1.078	.249	.353	.487	.840
Gunnar Henderson	4.3	.591	.170	.031	.175	.532	.945	.256	.354	.457	.811
Coby Mayo	4.3	.498	.163	.025	.213	.432	1.239	.238	.321	.463	.784
Christian Encarnacion-Strand	4.2	.553	.172	.014	.191	.232	1.197	.240	.290	.439	.729
Samuel Basallo	4.0	.518	.143	.008	.202	.387	1.032	.240	.319	.451	.770
Rece Hinds	3.9	.483	.155	.018	.141	.287	1.245	.221	.284	.391	.675
Colton Cowser	3.8	.471	.122	.006	.147	.452	1.187	.225	.323	.398	.722
José Barrero	3.7	.412	.108	.011	.118	.264	1.211	.193	.263	.337	.600

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections