Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles — Prediction & Odds

September 23, 2026 · Max Scherzer vs Chris Bassitt · 60°F

1.3% edge · Toronto Blue Jays

Toronto Blue Jays win

46.8%

Baltimore Orioles win

53.2%

Fair line (home)

-114

Proj. total

8.68

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Toronto Blue Jays (mean 4.30)Baltimore Orioles (mean 4.37)

Totals

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

8.68

Over

56.1%

Under

43.9%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Toronto Blue Jays	46.8%	+115	+114
Baltimore Orioles	53.2%	-125	-114

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Max Scherzer RHP · Toronto Blue Jays	4.6	4.7	4.5	1.5	2.3
Chris Bassitt RHP · Baltimore Orioles	5.1	3.8	5.4	1.8	2.4

Strikeout ladder

Max Scherzer4+ 72%6+ 34%8+ 9%

Chris Bassitt4+ 53%6+ 17%8+ 3%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Toronto Blue Jays — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Nathan Lukes	4.8	.932	.208	.013	.103	.359	.667	.285	.346	.408	.754
Josh Smith	4.7	.730	.182	.017	.093	.484	.878	.248	.341	.368	.709
Kazuma Okamoto	4.6	.615	.186	.003	.206	.415	1.040	.245	.322	.441	.763
George Springer	4.5	.702	.176	.015	.166	.448	.769	.266	.348	.442	.790
Sean Keys	4.4	.577	.165	.021	.169	.397	1.139	.239	.322	.422	.744
Andrés Giménez	4.3	.737	.177	.013	.086	.229	.713	.258	.319	.375	.694
Brandon Valenzuela	4.2	.580	.142	.006	.123	.359	1.010	.225	.299	.364	.663
Myles Straw	4.0	.699	.163	.016	.035	.353	.646	.249	.319	.331	.650
Ernie Clement	3.9	.748	.206	.014	.069	.174	.350	.278	.315	.396	.711

Baltimore Orioles — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Dylan Beavers	4.5	.645	.183	.012	.159	.487	1.039	.250	.335	.421	.756
Pete Alonso	4.4	.571	.167	.005	.285	.443	1.010	.264	.351	.530	.881
Gunnar Henderson	4.3	.616	.177	.037	.192	.420	.883	.266	.344	.481	.824
Coby Mayo	4.2	.502	.158	.023	.244	.333	1.177	.242	.309	.486	.795
Christian Encarnacion-Strand	4.1	.547	.171	.017	.207	.187	1.121	.243	.285	.457	.742
Colton Cowser	4.0	.515	.131	.005	.184	.400	1.215	.235	.319	.430	.749
Jeremiah Jackson	3.9	.585	.163	.008	.151	.155	.858	.244	.280	.415	.694
Leody Taveras	3.8	.566	.122	.037	.098	.271	.874	.237	.295	.377	.672
Carlos Narváez	3.6	.447	.130	.005	.107	.307	1.045	.209	.284	.349	.633

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections