Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles — Prediction & Odds

September 23, 2026 · CJ Van Eyk vs Trey Gibson · 60°F

1.4% edge · Toronto Blue Jays

Toronto Blue Jays win

49.0%

Baltimore Orioles win

51.0%

Fair line (home)

-104

Proj. total

8.6

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Toronto Blue Jays (mean 4.35)Baltimore Orioles (mean 4.25)

Totals

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

8.6

Over

54.2%

Under

45.8%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Toronto Blue Jays	49.0%	+106	+104
Baltimore Orioles	51.0%	-115	-104

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
CJ Van Eyk RHP · Toronto Blue Jays	2.3	1.6	2.5	0.8	1.1
Trey Gibson RHP · Baltimore Orioles	4.5	3.4	4.6	1.9	2.0

Strikeout ladder

CJ Van Eyk4+ 7%6+ 0%8+ 0%

Trey Gibson4+ 46%6+ 12%8+ 2%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Toronto Blue Jays — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Nathan Lukes	4.8	.913	.219	.013	.096	.379	.686	.280	.343	.401	.743
Josh Smith	4.7	.717	.188	.019	.088	.511	.893	.244	.338	.362	.700
Alejandro Kirk	4.6	.829	.170	.006	.130	.549	.531	.280	.370	.422	.792
Kazuma Okamoto	4.5	.606	.190	.004	.192	.434	1.000	.245	.325	.436	.761
Sean Keys	4.4	.561	.167	.021	.151	.424	1.186	.228	.313	.396	.709
Davis Schneider	4.3	.461	.150	.008	.133	.662	1.220	.209	.339	.366	.705
Charles McAdoo	4.2	.634	.160	.016	.116	.335	1.035	.242	.308	.382	.690
Myles Straw	4.1	.704	.168	.016	.030	.365	.644	.249	.320	.328	.648
Ernie Clement	4.0	.758	.197	.015	.066	.185	.366	.276	.315	.390	.705

Baltimore Orioles — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Dylan Beavers	4.6	.664	.192	.011	.136	.492	.971	.248	.334	.402	.736
Pete Alonso	4.5	.606	.172	.004	.235	.459	.946	.259	.349	.485	.834
Gunnar Henderson	4.3	.638	.186	.035	.160	.440	.850	.263	.345	.453	.798
Coby Mayo	4.3	.528	.162	.025	.194	.372	1.122	.237	.312	.444	.756
Christian Encarnacion-Strand	4.1	.599	.175	.016	.181	.200	1.064	.249	.294	.442	.735
Colton Cowser	4.0	.551	.142	.005	.145	.427	1.169	.236	.324	.401	.724
Jeremiah Jackson	3.9	.606	.170	.008	.130	.161	.819	.244	.281	.399	.680
Christian Franklin	3.8	.568	.131	.023	.058	.419	.921	.234	.328	.339	.668
Yohel Pozo	3.7	.602	.141	.010	.103	.248	.593	.252	.309	.390	.699

Data notes: home starter Trey Gibson: only 68 BF vs RHB this season · away starter CJ Van Eyk: only 23 BF vs LHB this season · away starter CJ Van Eyk: only 12 BF vs RHB this season · 19/20 lineup+starter talents from projections