Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox — Prediction & Odds

July 17, 2026 · Griffin Jax vs Jake Bennett · 84°F

4.9% edge · Tampa Bay Rays

Tampa Bay Rays win

53.5%

Boston Red Sox win

46.5%

Fair line (home)

+115

Proj. total

8.67

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Tampa Bay Rays (mean 4.63)Boston Red Sox (mean 4.04)

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

8.67

Over

47.4%

Under

52.6%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Tampa Bay Rays	53.5%	+102	-115
Boston Red Sox	46.5%	-110	+115

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Yandy Díaz	4.9	.976	.234	.013	.144	.433	.639	.312	.380	.470	.850
Jonathan Aranda	4.8	.846	.211	.005	.149	.488	1.058	.288	.370	.446	.816
Junior Caminero	4.7	.748	.196	.006	.291	.366	.799	.291	.350	.545	.895
Ryan Vilade	4.5	.752	.208	.025	.100	.339	.984	.260	.322	.394	.716
Jonny DeLuca	4.4	.690	.213	.029	.119	.283	.845	.255	.309	.408	.717
Chandler Simpson	4.3	1.017	.133	.061	.014	.221	.427	.299	.337	.371	.708
Ben Williamson	4.2	.800	.201	.019	.047	.287	.782	.274	.329	.371	.700
Taylor Walls	4.1	.597	.156	.020	.047	.369	.941	.221	.296	.312	.608
Nick Fortes	4.0	.706	.179	.008	.084	.185	.583	.261	.308	.380	.688

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Anthony Seigler	4.6	.626	.197	.023	.072	.556	1.040	.230	.330	.345	.675
Ceddanne Rafaela	4.5	.714	.218	.030	.127	.224	.979	.259	.304	.416	.720
Wilyer Abreu	4.4	.605	.197	.022	.162	.471	1.065	.254	.338	.442	.779
Caleb Durbin	4.3	.668	.213	.015	.110	.328	.557	.261	.335	.410	.745
Masataka Yoshida	4.2	.753	.187	.015	.101	.313	.598	.278	.343	.415	.758
Romy Gonzalez	4.1	.676	.177	.036	.121	.239	1.065	.267	.318	.430	.748
Jarren Duran	4.0	.534	.179	.055	.112	.329	1.046	.246	.317	.420	.737
Carlos Narváez	3.8	.503	.158	.004	.104	.371	1.103	.225	.307	.364	.671
Tsung-Che Cheng	3.7	.510	.136	.027	.051	.349	1.018	.217	.296	.319	.615

Data notes: home starter Jake Bennett: only 46 BF vs LHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections