Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox — Prediction & Odds

July 19, 2026 · Shane McClanahan vs Sonny Gray · 79°F

3.0% edge · Tampa Bay Rays

Tampa Bay Rays win

49.5%

Boston Red Sox win

50.5%

Fair line (home)

-102

Proj. total

8.37

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Tampa Bay Rays (mean 4.30)Boston Red Sox (mean 4.07)

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

8.37

Over

44.2%

Under

55.8%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Tampa Bay Rays	49.5%	+111	+102
Boston Red Sox	50.5%	-120	-102

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Yandy Díaz	4.8	.928	.214	.010	.147	.428	.796	.298	.367	.453	.821
Jonathan Aranda	4.7	.780	.198	.005	.135	.487	1.246	.267	.352	.414	.765
Junior Caminero	4.6	.722	.184	.006	.274	.364	.957	.280	.340	.520	.861
Cedric Mullins	4.5	.637	.183	.022	.120	.360	1.088	.234	.301	.377	.678
Chandler Simpson	4.4	1.019	.136	.061	.015	.223	.504	.296	.333	.369	.702
Victor Mesa Jr.	4.3	.653	.176	.018	.111	.317	1.051	.243	.303	.381	.684
Richie Palacios	4.2	.675	.167	.034	.061	.407	.853	.251	.331	.363	.694
Taylor Walls	4.1	.570	.147	.028	.045	.390	1.081	.216	.296	.309	.605
Hunter Feduccia	4.0	.564	.138	.025	.063	.408	1.140	.224	.308	.331	.639

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jahmai Jones	4.6	.593	.172	.024	.127	.461	1.338	.226	.313	.374	.687
Ceddanne Rafaela	4.5	.715	.215	.032	.128	.203	.966	.260	.301	.417	.718
Wilyer Abreu	4.3	.598	.189	.024	.156	.450	1.057	.250	.331	.432	.763
Willson Contreras	4.2	.587	.172	.018	.191	.402	1.122	.259	.347	.467	.814
Caleb Durbin	4.1	.652	.210	.015	.099	.291	.542	.259	.325	.402	.727
Romy Gonzalez	4.0	.678	.177	.036	.125	.223	1.070	.268	.314	.433	.748
Andruw Monasterio	3.9	.610	.175	.005	.075	.335	.946	.243	.314	.359	.673
Jarren Duran	3.8	.509	.175	.047	.103	.306	1.025	.241	.310	.408	.718
Connor Wong	3.7	.586	.169	.010	.071	.278	.951	.249	.313	.368	.681

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections