Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox — Prediction & Odds

July 18, 2026 · Ian Seymour vs Patrick Sandoval · 73°F

0.6% edge · Boston Red Sox

Tampa Bay Rays win

49.2%

Boston Red Sox win

50.8%

Fair line (home)

-103

Proj. total

8.34

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Tampa Bay Rays (mean 4.25)Boston Red Sox (mean 4.09)

Totals

O/U line

9.5

Proj. total

8.34

Over

34.5%

Under

65.5%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Tampa Bay Rays	49.2%	-103	+103
Boston Red Sox	50.8%	-105	-103

Tampa Bay Rays — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Yandy Díaz	4.8	.913	.205	.011	.133	.534	.734	.296	.380	.442	.823
Jonny DeLuca	4.7	.689	.215	.032	.107	.377	.990	.242	.310	.382	.691
Junior Caminero	4.6	.684	.186	.005	.254	.439	.894	.272	.345	.502	.847
Ryan Vilade	4.5	.692	.177	.024	.086	.406	1.108	.241	.316	.359	.675
Chandler Simpson	4.4	.992	.131	.060	.012	.274	.480	.290	.337	.360	.697
Ben Williamson	4.3	.777	.192	.021	.040	.353	.872	.263	.329	.354	.683
Victor Mesa Jr.	4.2	.616	.176	.018	.093	.374	.957	.238	.311	.368	.679
Nick Fortes	4.1	.682	.161	.008	.074	.237	.667	.246	.302	.352	.654
Richie Palacios	4.0	.612	.146	.026	.052	.462	.763	.242	.339	.345	.684

Boston Red Sox — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Anthony Seigler	4.6	.631	.190	.020	.071	.543	1.001	.228	.327	.339	.666
Ceddanne Rafaela	4.5	.712	.213	.031	.133	.221	.939	.259	.306	.420	.726
Wilyer Abreu	4.4	.598	.191	.026	.168	.470	1.002	.254	.338	.446	.784
Willson Contreras	4.3	.571	.172	.015	.186	.429	1.085	.254	.350	.459	.809
Romy Gonzalez	4.2	.680	.176	.036	.121	.245	1.046	.262	.313	.419	.732
Caleb Durbin	4.1	.643	.197	.016	.100	.303	.497	.262	.336	.407	.742
Andruw Monasterio	4.0	.611	.178	.005	.075	.348	.895	.244	.318	.360	.678
Jahmai Jones	3.8	.486	.143	.021	.111	.409	1.055	.226	.320	.380	.700
Carlos Narváez	3.7	.494	.145	.004	.096	.362	1.024	.223	.307	.356	.663

Data notes: home starter Patrick Sandoval: only 4 BF vs LHB this season · home starter Patrick Sandoval: only 15 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections