Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox — Prediction & Odds

July 17, 2026 · Mason Englert vs Eduardo Rivera · 83°F

0.6% edge · Boston Red Sox

Tampa Bay Rays win

48.4%

Boston Red Sox win

51.6%

Fair line (home)

-107

Proj. total

8.68

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Tampa Bay Rays (mean 4.38)Boston Red Sox (mean 4.29)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

8.68

Over

37.6%

Under

52.5%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Tampa Bay Rays	48.4%	-100	+107
Boston Red Sox	51.6%	-108	-107

Tampa Bay Rays — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Yandy Díaz	4.9	.927	.206	.014	.133	.539	.747	.299	.385	.447	.832
Jonathan Aranda	4.8	.762	.191	.005	.138	.616	1.185	.268	.373	.418	.791
Junior Caminero	4.7	.703	.184	.006	.258	.470	.908	.276	.353	.508	.861
Ryan Vilade	4.6	.686	.185	.022	.087	.423	1.138	.240	.319	.360	.679
Cedric Mullins	4.5	.592	.164	.022	.113	.444	1.025	.225	.310	.364	.674
Jonny DeLuca	4.3	.626	.186	.028	.108	.345	.917	.241	.309	.384	.694
Ben Williamson	4.2	.755	.192	.018	.040	.349	.883	.262	.329	.353	.681
Hunter Feduccia	4.1	.566	.145	.027	.060	.503	1.149	.222	.322	.328	.650
Taylor Walls	4.0	.544	.140	.019	.037	.449	1.019	.210	.304	.292	.596

Boston Red Sox — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Anthony Seigler	4.6	.654	.198	.023	.072	.535	.967	.235	.331	.349	.679
Ceddanne Rafaela	4.5	.731	.219	.032	.144	.214	.876	.266	.309	.435	.745
Wilyer Abreu	4.4	.616	.197	.022	.175	.456	.972	.259	.340	.456	.796
Willson Contreras	4.3	.599	.173	.014	.209	.414	1.043	.265	.356	.487	.842
Masataka Yoshida	4.2	.764	.190	.017	.116	.307	.530	.285	.349	.435	.784
Caleb Durbin	4.1	.634	.206	.015	.109	.281	.473	.261	.329	.413	.742
Jarren Duran	4.0	.548	.188	.052	.116	.313	.979	.251	.319	.428	.747
Connor Wong	3.9	.625	.177	.010	.089	.286	.897	.257	.322	.388	.710
Tsung-Che Cheng	3.7	.528	.133	.028	.052	.329	.947	.220	.294	.322	.615

Data notes: home starter Eduardo Rivera: only 13 BF vs LHB this season · home starter Eduardo Rivera: only 11 BF vs RHB this season · away starter Mason Englert: only 53 BF vs LHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections