Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox — Prediction & Odds

July 20, 2026 · Shane Baz vs Payton Tolle · 82°F

3.6% edge · Baltimore Orioles

Baltimore Orioles win

44.4%

Boston Red Sox win

55.6%

Fair line (home)

-125

Proj. total

9.15

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Baltimore Orioles (mean 4.43)Boston Red Sox (mean 4.72)

O/U line

Proj. total

9.15

Over

41.8%

Under

47.4%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Baltimore Orioles	44.4%	+140	+125
Boston Red Sox	55.6%	-153	-125

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Taylor Ward	4.7	.665	.183	.012	.180	.572	1.140	.251	.346	.431	.777
Pete Alonso	4.6	.590	.183	.005	.262	.460	1.117	.253	.338	.492	.830
Gunnar Henderson	4.5	.656	.194	.031	.185	.436	.988	.263	.340	.464	.804
Tyler O'Neill	4.4	.567	.152	.009	.203	.463	1.286	.237	.323	.436	.759
Coby Mayo	4.3	.531	.181	.012	.181	.378	1.276	.232	.306	.424	.731
Leody Taveras	4.2	.680	.142	.037	.096	.288	.982	.245	.300	.374	.673
Jeremiah Jackson	4.1	.646	.195	.012	.136	.175	.927	.253	.290	.414	.704
Christian Encarnacion-Strand	4.0	.567	.160	.019	.160	.170	1.172	.239	.278	.419	.697
Sam Huff	3.9	.496	.132	.010	.114	.252	1.409	.209	.265	.346	.611

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Anthony Seigler	4.7	.693	.204	.024	.081	.598	.961	.247	.350	.370	.720
Ceddanne Rafaela	4.6	.785	.239	.032	.138	.236	.901	.279	.324	.446	.770
Wilyer Abreu	4.5	.648	.217	.024	.185	.500	.965	.273	.358	.482	.840
Willson Contreras	4.3	.617	.189	.018	.218	.442	1.046	.275	.368	.508	.876
Masataka Yoshida	4.3	.813	.209	.018	.111	.329	.532	.299	.363	.449	.812
Caleb Durbin	4.1	.693	.218	.016	.105	.305	.483	.276	.345	.427	.773
Jarren Duran	4.0	.592	.214	.058	.120	.340	.995	.269	.338	.458	.796
Connor Wong	3.9	.665	.194	.009	.090	.309	.912	.268	.334	.403	.737
Tsung-Che Cheng	3.8	.559	.159	.029	.052	.343	.939	.232	.306	.340	.647

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections