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3.7% edge · Boston Red SoxBaltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox — Prediction & Odds
July 21, 2026 · Kyle Bradish vs Eduardo Rivera · 70°F
Baltimore Orioles win
45.4%
Boston Red Sox win
54.6%
Fair line (home)
-120
Proj. total
8.45
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
Baltimore Orioles (mean 4.12)Boston Red Sox (mean 4.33)
Totals
O/U line
8.5
Proj. total
8.45
Over
45.5%
Under
54.5%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Orioles | 45.4% | -100 | +120 |
| Boston Red Sox | 54.6% | -108 | -120 |
Baltimore Orioles — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Ward | 4.8 | .657 | .181 | .009 | .126 | .664 | 1.124 | .238 | .350 | .379 | .728 |
| Pete Alonso | 4.7 | .617 | .181 | .005 | .196 | .561 | 1.122 | .246 | .348 | .438 | .787 |
| Gunnar Henderson | 4.6 | .671 | .199 | .034 | .140 | .512 | .986 | .259 | .349 | .430 | .779 |
| Tyler O'Neill | 4.5 | .576 | .144 | .008 | .150 | .538 | 1.278 | .226 | .327 | .383 | .710 |
| Coby Mayo | 4.4 | .532 | .177 | .014 | .141 | .432 | 1.293 | .222 | .307 | .383 | .690 |
| Leody Taveras | 4.3 | .687 | .136 | .036 | .070 | .342 | .982 | .238 | .302 | .345 | .647 |
| Christian Encarnacion-Strand | 4.2 | .596 | .163 | .021 | .124 | .211 | 1.217 | .232 | .280 | .381 | .661 |
| Jackson Holliday | 4.0 | .588 | .142 | .024 | .082 | .487 | .955 | .237 | .336 | .361 | .697 |
| Chadwick Tromp | 3.9 | .546 | .150 | .006 | .065 | .303 | 1.024 | .213 | .278 | .312 | .590 |
Boston Red Sox — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Seigler | 4.7 | .679 | .206 | .024 | .064 | .580 | 1.042 | .241 | .343 | .352 | .695 |
| Ceddanne Rafaela | 4.5 | .775 | .237 | .035 | .113 | .236 | .953 | .273 | .318 | .425 | .743 |
| Wilyer Abreu | 4.4 | .633 | .200 | .025 | .145 | .500 | 1.047 | .257 | .345 | .433 | .778 |
| Willson Contreras | 4.3 | .618 | .191 | .017 | .177 | .439 | 1.125 | .266 | .358 | .467 | .825 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 4.2 | .786 | .196 | .017 | .088 | .317 | .600 | .283 | .346 | .411 | .757 |
| Caleb Durbin | 4.1 | .683 | .214 | .014 | .087 | .316 | .526 | .270 | .342 | .406 | .748 |
| Jarren Duran | 4.0 | .557 | .199 | .054 | .102 | .340 | 1.061 | .253 | .324 | .423 | .746 |
| Andruw Monasterio | 3.9 | .642 | .190 | .007 | .067 | .341 | .916 | .258 | .329 | .374 | .703 |
| Carlos Narváez | 3.8 | .515 | .161 | .005 | .083 | .371 | 1.078 | .227 | .310 | .352 | .662 |
Data notes: home starter Eduardo Rivera: only 17 BF vs LHB this season · home starter Eduardo Rivera: only 19 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections