Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox — Prediction & Odds

July 25, 2026 · Dylan Cease vs Sonny Gray · 71°F

2.4% edge · Toronto Blue Jays

Toronto Blue Jays win

51.4%

Boston Red Sox win

48.5%

Fair line (home)

+106

Proj. total

8.01

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Toronto Blue Jays (mean 4.17)Boston Red Sox (mean 3.84)

O/U line

Proj. total

8.01

Over

48.6%

Under

39.3%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Toronto Blue Jays	51.4%	-100	-106
Boston Red Sox	48.5%	-108	+106

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Nathan Lukes	4.8	.905	.223	.016	.082	.339	.808	.279	.335	.393	.729
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	4.7	.826	.229	.003	.166	.489	.674	.297	.376	.474	.850
Kazuma Okamoto	4.5	.647	.187	.005	.180	.346	1.137	.245	.309	.422	.731
George Springer	4.4	.677	.169	.014	.147	.407	.943	.252	.327	.412	.740
Daulton Varsho	4.3	.568	.182	.034	.146	.323	1.111	.233	.295	.406	.701
Ernie Clement	4.2	.840	.217	.018	.070	.168	.443	.283	.316	.398	.714
Yohendrick Piñango	4.1	.628	.187	.008	.087	.309	1.052	.240	.301	.362	.663
Andrés Giménez	4.0	.677	.171	.014	.080	.202	.791	.252	.303	.370	.673
Brandon Valenzuela	3.9	.542	.131	.006	.081	.293	1.093	.213	.276	.321	.597

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Anthony Seigler	4.6	.598	.189	.022	.058	.589	1.221	.219	.325	.321	.646
Ceddanne Rafaela	4.5	.681	.207	.032	.112	.244	1.145	.247	.295	.392	.687
Wilyer Abreu	4.4	.566	.192	.023	.145	.492	1.215	.240	.329	.415	.743
Willson Contreras	4.3	.557	.162	.015	.157	.456	1.294	.241	.339	.420	.759
Masataka Yoshida	4.2	.736	.178	.014	.086	.335	.715	.269	.337	.393	.730
Caleb Durbin	4.0	.621	.202	.016	.079	.330	.637	.252	.327	.381	.709
Jarren Duran	3.9	.507	.174	.048	.091	.349	1.189	.231	.306	.383	.689
Andruw Monasterio	3.8	.574	.170	.004	.054	.355	1.051	.233	.310	.332	.642
Connor Wong	3.7	.555	.166	.007	.065	.304	1.065	.236	.307	.348	.655

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections