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2.3% edge · Toronto Blue JaysToronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox — Prediction & Odds
July 24, 2026 · Trey Yesavage vs Patrick Sandoval · 79°F
Toronto Blue Jays win
48.1%
Boston Red Sox win
51.9%
Fair line (home)
-108
Proj. total
9.22
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
Toronto Blue Jays (mean 4.64)Boston Red Sox (mean 4.58)
Totals
O/U line
9
Proj. total
9.22
Over
42.4%
Under
47.5%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto Blue Jays | 48.1% | +114 | +108 |
| Boston Red Sox | 51.9% | -124 | -108 |
Toronto Blue Jays — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ernie Clement | 4.9 | .989 | .266 | .021 | .081 | .226 | .475 | .292 | .329 | .411 | .740 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | 4.8 | .848 | .225 | .004 | .168 | .620 | .635 | .302 | .398 | .480 | .878 |
| Kazuma Okamoto | 4.7 | .638 | .188 | .005 | .185 | .443 | 1.092 | .243 | .322 | .422 | .744 |
| George Springer | 4.6 | .711 | .169 | .013 | .150 | .504 | .901 | .260 | .349 | .421 | .769 |
| Alejandro Kirk | 4.5 | .777 | .174 | .006 | .113 | .517 | .581 | .274 | .363 | .407 | .770 |
| Davis Schneider | 4.3 | .491 | .158 | .009 | .119 | .678 | 1.258 | .214 | .344 | .361 | .705 |
| Daulton Varsho | 4.3 | .547 | .173 | .028 | .139 | .389 | 1.002 | .232 | .309 | .401 | .710 |
| Luis Urías | 4.1 | .629 | .158 | .010 | .095 | .436 | .726 | .245 | .337 | .373 | .709 |
| Myles Straw | 4.0 | .678 | .157 | .012 | .032 | .345 | .778 | .240 | .308 | .316 | .624 |
Boston Red Sox — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Seigler | 4.7 | .662 | .197 | .022 | .079 | .628 | 1.028 | .240 | .348 | .359 | .707 |
| Ceddanne Rafaela | 4.6 | .738 | .228 | .031 | .137 | .248 | .978 | .266 | .314 | .430 | .744 |
| Wilyer Abreu | 4.5 | .628 | .198 | .022 | .165 | .522 | 1.056 | .259 | .349 | .448 | .797 |
| Willson Contreras | 4.3 | .592 | .190 | .016 | .195 | .482 | 1.120 | .264 | .362 | .479 | .841 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 4.2 | .800 | .194 | .018 | .102 | .354 | .586 | .291 | .359 | .431 | .790 |
| Caleb Durbin | 4.1 | .671 | .211 | .017 | .103 | .345 | .513 | .271 | .347 | .420 | .767 |
| Jarren Duran | 4.0 | .559 | .198 | .055 | .116 | .375 | 1.047 | .256 | .333 | .437 | .770 |
| Andruw Monasterio | 3.9 | .623 | .187 | .007 | .070 | .376 | .913 | .253 | .332 | .370 | .702 |
| Connor Wong | 3.8 | .610 | .179 | .008 | .083 | .320 | .969 | .256 | .328 | .385 | .713 |
Data notes: home starter Patrick Sandoval: only 11 BF vs LHB this season · home starter Patrick Sandoval: only 31 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections