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0.5% edge · Baltimore OriolesBaltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox — Prediction & Odds
July 22, 2026 · Kyle Bradish vs Eduardo Rivera · 76°F
Baltimore Orioles win
46.5%
Boston Red Sox win
53.5%
Fair line (home)
-115
Proj. total
8.79
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
Baltimore Orioles (mean 4.35)Boston Red Sox (mean 4.44)
Totals
O/U line
9
Proj. total
8.79
Over
39.0%
Under
51.2%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Orioles | 46.5% | +113 | +115 |
| Boston Red Sox | 53.5% | -123 | -115 |
Baltimore Orioles — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Ward | 4.8 | .687 | .193 | .011 | .128 | .686 | 1.129 | .247 | .360 | .392 | .752 |
| Pete Alonso | 4.7 | .608 | .187 | .006 | .200 | .559 | 1.141 | .244 | .347 | .439 | .785 |
| Gunnar Henderson | 4.6 | .685 | .186 | .033 | .148 | .528 | .984 | .259 | .351 | .431 | .781 |
| Tyler O'Neill | 4.5 | .584 | .154 | .010 | .153 | .557 | 1.289 | .230 | .332 | .391 | .724 |
| Christian Encarnacion-Strand | 4.4 | .625 | .187 | .022 | .144 | .217 | 1.294 | .235 | .280 | .394 | .674 |
| Dylan Beavers | 4.3 | .624 | .171 | .016 | .090 | .585 | 1.000 | .244 | .351 | .372 | .722 |
| Johnathan Rodríguez | 4.2 | .652 | .167 | .012 | .102 | .430 | 1.177 | .249 | .331 | .382 | .713 |
| Jackson Holliday | 4.1 | .595 | .147 | .027 | .086 | .496 | .965 | .240 | .337 | .368 | .705 |
| Chadwick Tromp | 4.0 | .549 | .141 | .006 | .065 | .320 | 1.034 | .209 | .276 | .305 | .582 |
Boston Red Sox — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Seigler | 4.7 | .677 | .212 | .023 | .066 | .591 | 1.053 | .243 | .345 | .356 | .700 |
| Ceddanne Rafaela | 4.5 | .768 | .229 | .031 | .119 | .229 | .960 | .269 | .314 | .422 | .736 |
| Wilyer Abreu | 4.4 | .650 | .201 | .025 | .156 | .485 | 1.059 | .263 | .347 | .447 | .794 |
| Willson Contreras | 4.3 | .614 | .184 | .016 | .183 | .458 | 1.129 | .265 | .361 | .469 | .829 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 4.2 | .806 | .202 | .015 | .095 | .325 | .592 | .291 | .355 | .426 | .781 |
| Caleb Durbin | 4.1 | .690 | .216 | .016 | .096 | .325 | .524 | .274 | .346 | .417 | .763 |
| Jarren Duran | 4.0 | .575 | .206 | .055 | .108 | .336 | 1.035 | .260 | .330 | .436 | .766 |
| Andruw Monasterio | 3.9 | .638 | .185 | .005 | .070 | .360 | .923 | .256 | .330 | .371 | .701 |
| Carlos Narváez | 3.8 | .520 | .157 | .005 | .090 | .379 | 1.064 | .230 | .314 | .360 | .674 |
Data notes: home starter Eduardo Rivera: only 17 BF vs LHB this season · home starter Eduardo Rivera: only 19 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections