Chicago White Sox vs Boston Red Sox — Prediction & Odds

August 4, 2026 · Davis Martin vs Patrick Sandoval · 83°F

2.7% edge · Chicago White Sox

Chicago White Sox win

45.1%

Boston Red Sox win

54.9%

Fair line (home)

-122

Proj. total

9.02

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Chicago White Sox (mean 4.40)Boston Red Sox (mean 4.63)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

9.02

Over

40.7%

Under

49.2%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Chicago White Sox	45.1%	+131	+122
Boston Red Sox	54.9%	-142	-122

Chicago White Sox — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Chase Meidroth	4.8	.873	.180	.004	.074	.576	.889	.268	.362	.365	.727
Munetaka Murakami	4.7	.552	.124	.005	.239	.726	1.428	.231	.354	.445	.800
Miguel Vargas	4.6	.618	.211	.015	.147	.616	.847	.249	.356	.421	.777
Randal Grichuk	4.5	.689	.210	.009	.164	.289	.972	.255	.309	.427	.736
Colson Montgomery	4.4	.540	.145	.009	.187	.419	1.311	.224	.308	.408	.716
Joey Bart	4.3	.660	.148	.011	.109	.414	1.252	.243	.327	.373	.700
Brenton Doyle	4.2	.686	.162	.016	.104	.308	1.145	.250	.309	.381	.690
Braden Montgomery	4.1	.616	.171	.012	.082	.352	1.134	.239	.313	.359	.671
Luisangel Acuña	4.0	.774	.157	.014	.048	.248	.696	.269	.318	.357	.676

Boston Red Sox — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Nick Sogard	4.7	.762	.196	.016	.058	.529	.958	.251	.343	.348	.691
Ceddanne Rafaela	4.6	.761	.239	.033	.134	.237	.863	.273	.319	.438	.757
Wilyer Abreu	4.4	.655	.208	.025	.172	.490	.941	.270	.354	.467	.822
Willson Contreras	4.3	.618	.187	.018	.202	.441	1.016	.272	.366	.492	.857
Masataka Yoshida	4.2	.790	.196	.018	.101	.322	.522	.287	.353	.426	.779
Caleb Durbin	4.1	.691	.214	.016	.105	.318	.461	.276	.348	.427	.775
Jarren Duran	4.0	.577	.197	.057	.118	.342	.961	.261	.332	.444	.776
Andruw Monasterio	3.9	.649	.186	.006	.080	.366	.843	.262	.338	.386	.724
Connor Wong	3.8	.627	.180	.009	.080	.301	.872	.260	.328	.386	.714

Data notes: home starter Patrick Sandoval: only 21 BF vs LHB this season · home starter Patrick Sandoval: only 65 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections