Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox — Prediction & Odds

July 26, 2026 · Kevin Gausman vs Ranger Suarez · 67°F

4.4% edge · Toronto Blue Jays

Toronto Blue Jays win

49.0%

Boston Red Sox win

51.0%

Fair line (home)

-104

Proj. total

8.51

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Toronto Blue Jays (mean 4.36)Boston Red Sox (mean 4.15)

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

8.51

Over

53.5%

Under

46.5%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Toronto Blue Jays	49.0%	+120	+104
Boston Red Sox	51.0%	-130	-104

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Nathan Lukes	4.8	.926	.228	.018	.078	.355	.757	.282	.339	.394	.734
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	4.7	.843	.221	.003	.156	.516	.644	.294	.377	.461	.837
Alejandro Kirk	4.6	.819	.181	.008	.105	.460	.616	.270	.347	.394	.741
George Springer	4.5	.701	.176	.012	.134	.438	.903	.254	.333	.404	.736
Daulton Varsho	4.4	.580	.185	.034	.135	.352	1.067	.232	.299	.395	.694
Kazuma Okamoto	4.3	.604	.172	.004	.158	.359	1.024	.241	.311	.409	.721
Ernie Clement	4.2	.830	.224	.019	.066	.168	.421	.285	.317	.400	.717
Andrés Giménez	4.1	.688	.175	.013	.073	.203	.765	.250	.301	.361	.662
Davis Schneider	3.9	.453	.146	.008	.100	.548	1.182	.210	.328	.347	.675

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Masataka Yoshida	4.6	.868	.213	.018	.100	.303	.632	.284	.339	.414	.753
Ceddanne Rafaela	4.5	.745	.222	.037	.119	.202	.936	.266	.305	.421	.726
Wilyer Abreu	4.3	.640	.206	.022	.153	.409	1.034	.260	.332	.441	.773
Willson Contreras	4.3	.598	.185	.018	.186	.386	1.112	.261	.342	.467	.809
Caleb Durbin	4.2	.687	.219	.017	.096	.277	.519	.268	.329	.410	.738
Romy Gonzalez	4.0	.692	.183	.040	.108	.215	1.038	.269	.313	.423	.736
Jarren Duran	3.9	.561	.198	.051	.104	.294	1.018	.253	.315	.423	.738
Andruw Monasterio	3.8	.630	.182	.005	.063	.308	.868	.252	.318	.361	.679
Carlos Narváez	3.7	.513	.153	.005	.089	.324	1.033	.227	.301	.356	.657

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections