Chicago White Sox vs Boston Red Sox — Prediction & Odds

August 6, 2026 · Luis Castillo vs Ranger Suarez · 85°F

10.4% edge · Chicago White Sox

Chicago White Sox win

47.3%

Boston Red Sox win

52.7%

Fair line (home)

-111

Proj. total

8.3

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Chicago White Sox (mean 4.15)Boston Red Sox (mean 4.15)

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

8.3

Over

43.2%

Under

56.8%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Chicago White Sox	47.3%	+165	+111
Boston Red Sox	52.7%	-181	-111

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Chase Meidroth	4.8	.882	.178	.006	.069	.495	.907	.267	.350	.361	.711
Munetaka Murakami	4.7	.558	.125	.007	.234	.626	1.474	.230	.337	.439	.776
Miguel Vargas	4.6	.630	.209	.015	.155	.535	.855	.252	.347	.429	.775
Randal Grichuk	4.5	.681	.204	.011	.159	.251	.978	.252	.300	.420	.720
Colson Montgomery	4.3	.534	.146	.009	.180	.345	1.341	.220	.291	.397	.688
Joey Bart	4.3	.656	.146	.010	.098	.371	1.262	.239	.317	.360	.677
Brenton Doyle	4.1	.639	.178	.018	.100	.271	1.139	.243	.296	.377	.673
Braden Montgomery	4.0	.625	.180	.011	.071	.305	1.133	.241	.306	.354	.660
Luisangel Acuña	3.9	.771	.154	.015	.044	.222	.718	.269	.315	.356	.671

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Nick Sogard	4.6	.730	.183	.014	.060	.478	1.029	.243	.329	.339	.668
Ceddanne Rafaela	4.5	.725	.229	.035	.132	.209	.931	.265	.308	.430	.738
Wilyer Abreu	4.4	.615	.193	.020	.182	.437	1.006	.258	.335	.457	.792
Caleb Durbin	4.3	.684	.220	.017	.104	.299	.509	.265	.332	.410	.743
Masataka Yoshida	4.2	.756	.192	.017	.110	.302	.565	.283	.345	.429	.774
Jarren Duran	4.1	.571	.188	.051	.129	.320	1.031	.254	.321	.437	.758
Andruw Monasterio	4.0	.633	.180	.006	.078	.327	.909	.250	.319	.369	.688
Anthony Seigler	3.8	.529	.159	.018	.066	.448	.839	.231	.328	.348	.676
Connor Wong	3.7	.593	.173	.008	.083	.278	.918	.253	.319	.383	.702

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections