Chicago White Sox vs Boston Red Sox — Prediction & Odds

August 5, 2026 · Sean Burke vs Sonny Gray · 84°F

2.6% edge · Boston Red Sox

Chicago White Sox win

42.4%

Boston Red Sox win

57.6%

Fair line (home)

-136

Proj. total

8.86

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Chicago White Sox (mean 4.17)Boston Red Sox (mean 4.69)

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

8.86

Over

49.4%

Under

50.6%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Chicago White Sox	42.4%	+118	+136
Boston Red Sox	57.6%	-127	-136

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Sam Antonacci	4.8	.894	.189	.031	.068	.413	.886	.278	.358	.384	.742
Munetaka Murakami	4.7	.549	.124	.006	.249	.596	1.511	.229	.331	.447	.778
Miguel Vargas	4.6	.618	.205	.015	.158	.512	.903	.248	.339	.424	.763
Colson Montgomery	4.5	.543	.157	.010	.203	.345	1.424	.225	.295	.418	.713
Andrew Benintendi	4.3	.720	.162	.021	.127	.349	.935	.259	.321	.405	.727
Braden Montgomery	4.3	.634	.187	.019	.085	.340	1.255	.239	.306	.363	.668
Tristan Peters	4.1	.649	.181	.024	.072	.314	.960	.244	.306	.361	.667
Chase Meidroth	4.0	.721	.152	.004	.060	.405	.809	.262	.343	.357	.700
Drew Romo	3.9	.559	.139	.008	.101	.215	1.062	.220	.269	.345	.614

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Nick Sogard	4.7	.717	.184	.013	.058	.583	1.045	.240	.341	.335	.676
Ceddanne Rafaela	4.6	.753	.225	.034	.146	.252	.924	.272	.322	.444	.766
Wilyer Abreu	4.4	.611	.199	.024	.193	.548	.978	.265	.359	.478	.838
Willson Contreras	4.3	.573	.180	.017	.227	.495	1.054	.268	.371	.508	.879
Masataka Yoshida	4.2	.760	.189	.017	.115	.362	.547	.284	.355	.433	.788
Caleb Durbin	4.1	.644	.206	.016	.116	.345	.498	.267	.347	.427	.775
Jarren Duran	4.0	.545	.188	.050	.123	.378	1.010	.252	.331	.435	.766
Andruw Monasterio	3.9	.618	.183	.005	.083	.381	.883	.255	.334	.381	.716
Connor Wong	3.8	.592	.174	.007	.096	.327	.903	.255	.330	.396	.726

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections