Athletics vs Boston Red Sox — Prediction & Odds

August 9, 2026 · J.T. Ginn vs Erik Miller · 85°F

9.1% edge · Athletics

Athletics win

40.9%

Boston Red Sox win

59.1%

Fair line (home)

-145

Proj. total

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Athletics (mean 4.14)Boston Red Sox (mean 4.86)

Totals

O/U line

9.5

Proj. total

Over

40.3%

Under

59.8%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Athletics	40.9%	+208	+145
Boston Red Sox	59.1%	-230	-145

Athletics — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Henry Bolte	4.8	.764	.201	.029	.100	.447	1.520	.255	.334	.384	.718
Jacob Wilson	4.7	.948	.243	.006	.088	.350	.496	.299	.358	.420	.778
Jonah Heim	4.6	.657	.166	.006	.135	.374	.984	.230	.298	.370	.667
Tyler Soderstrom	4.5	.604	.203	.017	.173	.536	.965	.256	.351	.450	.801
Tommy White	4.4	.754	.196	.013	.094	.249	.833	.259	.308	.383	.691
Lawrence Butler	4.3	.586	.170	.011	.120	.480	1.142	.236	.325	.383	.707
Jonathan Ornelas	4.2	.611	.111	.022	.057	.336	1.209	.212	.284	.299	.583
Max Muncy	4.0	.563	.155	.025	.104	.313	1.290	.231	.302	.372	.673
Jeff McNeil	3.9	.652	.170	.018	.069	.390	.549	.262	.346	.382	.728

Boston Red Sox — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Nick Sogard	4.7	.818	.207	.016	.058	.571	.963	.268	.363	.368	.731
Ceddanne Rafaela	4.6	.823	.258	.039	.138	.244	.868	.293	.340	.467	.807
Wilyer Abreu	4.5	.703	.232	.026	.168	.519	.930	.287	.373	.486	.859
Willson Contreras	4.4	.663	.206	.017	.212	.475	.999	.292	.390	.525	.914
Andruw Monasterio	4.3	.744	.220	.008	.078	.398	.881	.274	.350	.396	.746
Anthony Seigler	4.2	.641	.199	.022	.067	.534	.823	.258	.361	.381	.742
Jarren Duran	4.1	.618	.220	.055	.110	.361	.952	.274	.348	.454	.802
Eli White	4.0	.657	.136	.033	.111	.304	.962	.259	.325	.407	.733
Jake Rogers	3.8	.512	.131	.026	.131	.382	1.038	.234	.316	.402	.718

Data notes: home starter Erik Miller: only 67 BF vs LHB this season · game-time temp 85F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections