Arizona Diamondbacks vs Boston Red Sox — Prediction & Odds

August 18, 2026 · Merrill Kelly vs Ranger Suarez · 72°F

1.8% edge · Arizona Diamondbacks

Arizona Diamondbacks win

41.1%

Boston Red Sox win

58.9%

Fair line (home)

-143

Proj. total

8.76

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Arizona Diamondbacks (mean 4.05)Boston Red Sox (mean 4.71)

Totals

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

8.76

Over

56.1%

Under

43.9%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Arizona Diamondbacks	41.1%	+149	+143
Boston Red Sox	58.9%	-163	-143

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Merrill Kelly RHP · Arizona Diamondbacks	5.4	4.1	6.1	2.1	2.9
Ranger Suarez LHP · Boston Red Sox	4.9	4.2	5.1	1.5	2.0

Strikeout ladder

Merrill Kelly4+ 57%6+ 24%8+ 7%

Ranger Suarez4+ 58%6+ 26%8+ 8%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Arizona Diamondbacks — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Ildemaro Vargas	4.8	.926	.200	.030	.065	.239	.531	.270	.313	.371	.684
Corbin Carroll	4.7	.643	.179	.099	.150	.496	1.045	.258	.344	.458	.802
Gabriel Moreno	4.6	.869	.216	.013	.086	.461	.781	.290	.366	.413	.779
Geraldo Perdomo	4.5	.788	.182	.026	.070	.497	.616	.271	.360	.384	.744
Tim Tawa	4.4	.626	.172	.024	.091	.382	1.090	.231	.303	.355	.658
Jordan Lawlar	4.3	.640	.192	.036	.070	.354	1.155	.243	.314	.365	.679
James McCann	4.2	.670	.187	.007	.082	.209	1.073	.242	.288	.357	.645
Jose Fernandez	4.0	.712	.173	.027	.058	.185	.948	.253	.291	.358	.649
Ryan Waldschmidt	3.9	.612	.173	.028	.046	.387	1.031	.247	.331	.353	.684

Boston Red Sox — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Nick Sogard	4.7	.821	.207	.017	.052	.510	.893	.265	.350	.361	.711
Ceddanne Rafaela	4.6	.824	.249	.039	.124	.216	.775	.287	.328	.449	.776
Wilyer Abreu	4.5	.693	.218	.025	.166	.468	.863	.278	.357	.471	.828
Willson Contreras	4.3	.670	.200	.017	.189	.435	.953	.283	.372	.494	.866
Adley Rutschman	4.2	.698	.188	.017	.121	.473	.546	.273	.357	.430	.787
Caleb Durbin	4.1	.700	.237	.018	.096	.295	.425	.279	.344	.429	.773
Jarren Duran	4.0	.592	.224	.056	.103	.327	.903	.266	.332	.442	.774
Andruw Monasterio	3.9	.691	.207	.006	.067	.327	.766	.273	.340	.392	.732
Mickey Gasper	3.8	.631	.167	.016	.074	.397	.643	.264	.349	.389	.739

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections