Arizona Diamondbacks vs Boston Red Sox — Prediction & Odds

August 19, 2026 · Brandon Pfaadt vs Payton Tolle · 83°F

0.7% edge · Arizona Diamondbacks

Arizona Diamondbacks win

41.1%

Boston Red Sox win

58.9%

Fair line (home)

-143

Proj. total

8.83

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Arizona Diamondbacks (mean 4.13)Boston Red Sox (mean 4.69)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

8.83

Over

48.7%

Under

43.6%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Arizona Diamondbacks	41.1%	+142	+143
Boston Red Sox	58.9%	-155	-143

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Brandon Pfaadt RHP · Arizona Diamondbacks	3.9	3.0	4.6	1.1	2.0
Payton Tolle LHP · Boston Red Sox	5.3	5.0	5.2	1.6	2.2

Strikeout ladder

Brandon Pfaadt4+ 35%6+ 7%8+ 1%

Payton Tolle4+ 75%6+ 38%8+ 12%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Arizona Diamondbacks — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Ildemaro Vargas	4.8	.869	.196	.034	.083	.225	.612	.263	.305	.377	.682
Corbin Carroll	4.6	.570	.170	.109	.186	.496	1.089	.252	.339	.483	.822
Gabriel Moreno	4.5	.831	.222	.013	.110	.426	.841	.288	.360	.430	.789
Geraldo Perdomo	4.4	.742	.155	.034	.088	.490	.684	.261	.351	.386	.736
Nolan Arenado	4.3	.665	.172	.013	.149	.328	.862	.251	.314	.413	.727
Tim Tawa	4.2	.585	.164	.016	.136	.307	1.126	.231	.291	.385	.677
Jordan Lawlar	4.1	.570	.170	.028	.098	.291	1.256	.229	.293	.366	.659
Jose Fernandez	4.0	.649	.164	.024	.083	.168	1.070	.241	.276	.361	.637
Ryan Waldschmidt	3.9	.576	.159	.025	.070	.319	1.140	.237	.310	.356	.666

Boston Red Sox — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Nick Sogard	4.7	.833	.205	.022	.055	.450	.855	.267	.344	.366	.710
Ceddanne Rafaela	4.5	.813	.258	.028	.137	.180	.826	.286	.323	.454	.777
Wilyer Abreu	4.4	.685	.228	.022	.182	.421	.847	.280	.351	.485	.836
Willson Contreras	4.3	.674	.201	.018	.188	.401	.964	.284	.371	.495	.866
Caleb Durbin	4.2	.758	.231	.015	.103	.277	.450	.287	.350	.435	.785
Mickey Gasper	4.1	.719	.196	.013	.091	.375	.691	.276	.351	.410	.761
Andruw Monasterio	4.0	.727	.208	.013	.071	.322	.743	.279	.343	.401	.744
Jarren Duran	3.9	.600	.202	.058	.104	.283	.879	.270	.332	.446	.778
Connor Wong	3.8	.647	.200	.008	.082	.243	.825	.269	.326	.401	.727

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections