San Francisco Giants vs Boston Red Sox — Prediction & Odds

August 21, 2026 · Logan Webb vs Sonny Gray · 71°F

5.1% edge · San Francisco Giants

San Francisco Giants win

42.9%

Boston Red Sox win

57.1%

Fair line (home)

-133

Proj. total

8.1

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

San Francisco Giants (mean 3.84)Boston Red Sox (mean 4.26)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

8.1

Over

49.5%

Under

38.2%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
San Francisco Giants	42.9%	+159	+133
Boston Red Sox	57.1%	-174	-133

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Logan Webb RHP · San Francisco Giants	5.7	4.6	6.2	1.7	2.5
Sonny Gray RHP · Boston Red Sox	5.4	5.1	5.4	1.4	2.1

Strikeout ladder

Logan Webb4+ 68%6+ 31%8+ 8%

Sonny Gray4+ 76%6+ 40%8+ 12%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

San Francisco Giants — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Drew Gilbert	4.7	.741	.193	.040	.101	.346	.935	.249	.313	.382	.694
Rafael Devers	4.6	.635	.207	.009	.170	.457	1.243	.247	.327	.425	.752
Willy Adames	4.5	.595	.186	.012	.147	.404	1.235	.230	.303	.390	.693
Bryce Eldridge	4.4	.639	.188	.004	.140	.380	1.360	.242	.312	.396	.708
Jung Hoo Lee	4.3	.813	.216	.045	.059	.250	.508	.282	.329	.401	.731
Osleivis Basabe	4.2	.721	.196	.014	.068	.194	.764	.251	.291	.358	.650
Turner Hill	4.1	.755	.175	.043	.042	.307	.601	.271	.333	.375	.708
Drew Cavanaugh	4.0	.587	.153	.007	.075	.346	1.196	.230	.306	.339	.646
Christian Koss	3.9	.641	.169	.011	.052	.157	.921	.239	.278	.334	.612

Boston Red Sox — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Nick Sogard	4.6	.816	.203	.023	.038	.423	.894	.258	.331	.345	.675
Ceddanne Rafaela	4.5	.838	.253	.031	.095	.174	.846	.283	.319	.423	.742
Wilyer Abreu	4.4	.685	.215	.023	.130	.417	.891	.265	.339	.429	.768
Willson Contreras	4.3	.680	.196	.017	.130	.397	1.007	.270	.355	.433	.789
Adley Rutschman	4.2	.717	.216	.020	.079	.439	.576	.276	.355	.408	.763
Caleb Durbin	4.1	.746	.231	.017	.070	.261	.443	.284	.345	.410	.755
Jarren Duran	4.0	.625	.197	.059	.073	.286	.908	.261	.322	.407	.729
Andruw Monasterio	3.9	.688	.204	.012	.052	.301	.751	.270	.333	.379	.712
Mickey Gasper	3.8	.646	.181	.010	.054	.327	.647	.263	.336	.371	.707

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections