San Francisco Giants vs Boston Red Sox — Prediction & Odds

August 23, 2026 · Matt Wilkinson vs Jake Bennett · 69°F

8.7% edge · San Francisco Giants

San Francisco Giants win

43.3%

Boston Red Sox win

56.7%

Fair line (home)

-131

Proj. total

8.45

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

San Francisco Giants (mean 4.04)Boston Red Sox (mean 4.41)

Totals

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

8.45

Over

45.3%

Under

54.7%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
San Francisco Giants	43.3%	+183	+131
Boston Red Sox	56.7%	-201	-131

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Matt Wilkinson LHP · San Francisco Giants	4.9	4.0	5.2	1.9	2.3
Jake Bennett LHP · Boston Red Sox	5.3	4.0	5.8	1.3	2.3

Strikeout ladder

Matt Wilkinson4+ 57%6+ 21%8+ 4%

Jake Bennett4+ 58%6+ 21%8+ 4%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

San Francisco Giants — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Osleivis Basabe	4.8	.862	.216	.014	.080	.220	.703	.261	.301	.369	.670
Rafael Devers	4.6	.678	.213	.009	.174	.483	1.100	.260	.343	.443	.786
Willy Adames	4.5	.637	.201	.012	.142	.409	1.077	.242	.315	.401	.716
Bryce Eldridge	4.4	.673	.198	.006	.143	.400	1.182	.255	.326	.414	.740
Victor Bericoto	4.3	.758	.163	.024	.115	.213	.967	.259	.299	.394	.694
Jung Hoo Lee	4.2	.815	.228	.046	.058	.251	.411	.292	.341	.417	.758
Andrew Knizner	4.1	.664	.162	.010	.076	.288	.796	.242	.306	.351	.656
Jonah Cox	4.0	.757	.138	.082	.048	.203	.917	.272	.315	.391	.706
Christian Koss	3.9	.673	.173	.014	.058	.155	.815	.250	.289	.352	.641

Boston Red Sox — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jahmai Jones	4.7	.679	.211	.028	.130	.509	1.084	.256	.348	.417	.766
Ceddanne Rafaela	4.5	.793	.241	.031	.118	.219	.785	.277	.320	.431	.751
Wilyer Abreu	4.4	.630	.208	.025	.163	.517	.843	.264	.353	.457	.810
Willson Contreras	4.3	.628	.191	.016	.162	.503	.954	.269	.375	.461	.836
Caleb Durbin	4.2	.727	.216	.018	.087	.348	.425	.277	.353	.413	.766
Nick Sogard	4.1	.687	.172	.013	.042	.448	.759	.252	.340	.340	.680
Andruw Monasterio	4.0	.682	.209	.012	.062	.385	.719	.269	.345	.385	.731
Eli White	3.9	.652	.144	.031	.092	.274	.836	.256	.315	.390	.705
Connor Wong	3.8	.617	.184	.009	.067	.306	.813	.256	.329	.374	.703

Data notes: away starter Matt Wilkinson: only 4 BF vs LHB this season · away starter Matt Wilkinson: only 3 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections