San Francisco Giants vs Boston Red Sox — Prediction & Odds

August 22, 2026 · Blade Tidwell vs Patrick Sandoval · 70°F

7.9% edge · San Francisco Giants

San Francisco Giants win

42.4%

Boston Red Sox win

57.6%

Fair line (home)

-136

Proj. total

8.51

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

San Francisco Giants (mean 4.00)Boston Red Sox (mean 4.51)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

8.51

Over

46.0%

Under

46.1%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
San Francisco Giants	42.4%	+184	+136
Boston Red Sox	57.6%	-203	-136

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Blade Tidwell RHP · San Francisco Giants	2.4	1.7	2.5	1.1	1.1
Patrick Sandoval LHP · Boston Red Sox	5.2	4.5	5.2	2.0	2.2

Strikeout ladder

Blade Tidwell4+ 9%6+ 0%8+ 0%

Patrick Sandoval4+ 67%6+ 29%8+ 8%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

San Francisco Giants — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Victor Bericoto	4.8	.801	.170	.024	.124	.300	1.126	.251	.302	.383	.685
Rafael Devers	4.7	.621	.210	.006	.171	.600	1.179	.250	.352	.432	.784
Willy Adames	4.6	.596	.182	.012	.134	.506	1.170	.229	.319	.380	.700
Bryce Eldridge	4.5	.628	.178	.006	.133	.493	1.289	.240	.329	.389	.718
Osleivis Basabe	4.3	.746	.190	.013	.068	.269	.719	.251	.304	.354	.658
Jung Hoo Lee	4.2	.796	.203	.043	.057	.299	.470	.282	.340	.400	.740
Christian Koss	4.1	.710	.178	.013	.062	.203	.925	.248	.294	.348	.642
Drew Gilbert	4.0	.589	.157	.027	.077	.390	.730	.238	.323	.363	.686
Andrew Knizner	3.9	.588	.152	.009	.072	.339	.830	.234	.312	.344	.655

Boston Red Sox — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Nick Sogard	4.7	.761	.193	.019	.046	.562	.846	.249	.346	.339	.685
Ceddanne Rafaela	4.6	.786	.236	.032	.114	.231	.800	.273	.319	.423	.742
Wilyer Abreu	4.5	.647	.210	.023	.155	.531	.853	.265	.356	.450	.806
Willson Contreras	4.3	.639	.192	.016	.158	.509	.941	.271	.380	.459	.839
Adley Rutschman	4.3	.671	.203	.018	.090	.538	.565	.267	.365	.405	.770
Caleb Durbin	4.2	.701	.210	.017	.083	.333	.434	.272	.349	.405	.754
Jarren Duran	4.0	.589	.184	.055	.090	.368	.882	.254	.331	.409	.741
Andruw Monasterio	3.9	.662	.203	.012	.053	.368	.719	.265	.341	.375	.716
Mickey Gasper	3.8	.620	.169	.013	.066	.410	.627	.260	.351	.377	.728

Data notes: home starter Patrick Sandoval: only 39 BF vs LHB this season · away starter Blade Tidwell: only 61 BF vs LHB this season · away starter Blade Tidwell: only 49 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections