Seattle Mariners vs Boston Red Sox — Prediction & Odds

September 2, 2026 · Bryce Miller vs Patrick Sandoval · 67°F

8.7% edge · Seattle Mariners

Seattle Mariners win

52.0%

Boston Red Sox win

47.9%

Fair line (home)

+109

Proj. total

8.55

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Seattle Mariners (mean 4.48)Boston Red Sox (mean 4.07)

Totals

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

8.55

Over

46.9%

Under

53.1%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Seattle Mariners	52.0%	+126	-109
Boston Red Sox	47.9%	-137	+109

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Bryce Miller RHP · Seattle Mariners	5.1	4.7	5.2	1.6	2.3
Patrick Sandoval LHP · Boston Red Sox	5.1	4.5	5.1	2.3	2.4

Strikeout ladder

Bryce Miller4+ 71%6+ 33%8+ 9%

Patrick Sandoval4+ 67%6+ 30%8+ 8%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Seattle Mariners — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Randy Arozarena	4.9	.694	.211	.009	.136	.558	1.205	.249	.355	.401	.756
Dominic Canzone	4.8	.727	.210	.011	.157	.426	1.064	.255	.326	.417	.743
Julio Rodríguez	4.7	.778	.197	.011	.176	.394	1.024	.275	.344	.452	.796
Josh Naylor	4.6	.781	.200	.005	.123	.417	.672	.270	.343	.411	.753
Taylor Ward	4.5	.598	.165	.011	.115	.620	1.050	.234	.348	.375	.723
Cole Young	4.3	.733	.174	.030	.084	.391	.737	.262	.337	.387	.724
Weston Wilson	4.2	.514	.137	.008	.117	.411	1.285	.205	.288	.338	.626
J.P. Crawford	4.1	.615	.155	.004	.074	.568	.833	.241	.352	.350	.703
Jhonny Pereda	4.0	.690	.163	.006	.050	.385	.870	.253	.330	.343	.673

Boston Red Sox — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Roman Anthony	4.6	.688	.209	.032	.129	.544	1.166	.264	.357	.428	.785
Mickey Gasper	4.5	.705	.202	.011	.103	.393	.873	.254	.329	.386	.715
Ceddanne Rafaela	4.4	.726	.223	.030	.135	.177	.910	.269	.306	.435	.741
Wilyer Abreu	4.3	.581	.190	.020	.183	.418	.957	.255	.331	.459	.790
Nick Sogard	4.2	.660	.165	.020	.045	.410	.904	.240	.321	.332	.652
Caleb Durbin	4.0	.676	.209	.013	.101	.274	.531	.271	.335	.417	.752
Jarren Duran	3.9	.547	.173	.051	.099	.288	1.024	.241	.304	.399	.704
Trevor Story	3.8	.586	.160	.004	.110	.204	1.082	.240	.287	.379	.666
Connor Wong	3.7	.571	.174	.007	.079	.243	.948	.243	.302	.368	.669

Data notes: home starter Patrick Sandoval: only 63 BF vs LHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections