Seattle Mariners vs Boston Red Sox — Prediction & Odds

September 1, 2026 · Bryan Woo vs Jedixson Paez · 66°F

4.8% edge · Seattle Mariners

Seattle Mariners win

52.4%

Boston Red Sox win

47.6%

Fair line (home)

+110

Proj. total

7.88

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Seattle Mariners (mean 4.14)Boston Red Sox (mean 3.74)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

7.88

Over

47.8%

Under

41.3%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Seattle Mariners	52.4%	+106	-110
Boston Red Sox	47.6%	-115	+110

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Bryan Woo RHP · Seattle Mariners	5.4	5.4	5.3	1.3	2.1
Jedixson Paez RHP · Boston Red Sox	2.2	2.0	2.2	0.5	0.8

Strikeout ladder

Bryan Woo4+ 81%6+ 45%8+ 16%

Jedixson Paez4+ 11%6+ 1%8+ 0%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Seattle Mariners — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Randy Arozarena	4.8	.680	.208	.009	.128	.462	1.202	.244	.337	.389	.726
Dominic Canzone	4.7	.698	.201	.011	.159	.367	1.082	.250	.314	.414	.728
Julio Rodríguez	4.6	.768	.186	.011	.164	.361	1.014	.272	.338	.441	.779
Cal Raleigh	4.5	.469	.133	.002	.198	.490	1.328	.205	.301	.391	.692
Josh Naylor	4.3	.761	.193	.004	.115	.363	.651	.272	.339	.410	.749
Cole Young	4.2	.700	.168	.026	.088	.356	.740	.256	.327	.382	.709
Lazaro Montes	4.1	.474	.137	.014	.156	.352	1.488	.208	.281	.377	.658
J.P. Crawford	4.0	.616	.152	.005	.069	.486	.837	.241	.339	.345	.685
Brock Rodden	3.9	.529	.156	.015	.085	.234	1.187	.216	.270	.337	.607

Boston Red Sox — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Roman Anthony	4.5	.674	.202	.029	.113	.478	1.226	.255	.340	.404	.744
Mickey Gasper	4.4	.685	.194	.015	.097	.358	.922	.248	.319	.377	.696
Ceddanne Rafaela	4.3	.701	.215	.027	.125	.145	.943	.260	.294	.416	.710
Wilyer Abreu	4.2	.574	.192	.019	.170	.358	1.020	.250	.318	.444	.762
Nick Sogard	4.1	.634	.159	.018	.044	.366	.942	.231	.306	.320	.626
Caleb Durbin	4.0	.661	.190	.016	.088	.248	.560	.262	.326	.395	.721
Jarren Duran	3.9	.537	.176	.053	.097	.246	1.061	.240	.297	.399	.696
Trevor Story	3.8	.565	.161	.005	.098	.179	1.132	.234	.277	.365	.642
Connor Wong	3.6	.567	.157	.007	.078	.215	.968	.241	.297	.361	.658

Data notes: home starter Jedixson Paez: only 11 BF vs LHB this season · home starter Jedixson Paez: only 5 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections