Los Angeles Angels vs Boston Red Sox — Prediction & Odds

September 7, 2026 · Grayson Rodriguez vs Brayan Bello · 75°F

5.1% edge · Los Angeles Angels

Los Angeles Angels win

43.8%

Boston Red Sox win

56.2%

Fair line (home)

-128

Proj. total

8.62

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Los Angeles Angels (mean 4.13)Boston Red Sox (mean 4.49)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

8.62

Over

47.0%

Under

45.6%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Los Angeles Angels	43.8%	+153	+128
Boston Red Sox	56.2%	-167	-128

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Grayson Rodriguez RHP · Los Angeles Angels	4.8	4.4	5.1	1.9	2.3
Brayan Bello RHP · Boston Red Sox	4.4	4.1	4.7	1.6	2.0

Strikeout ladder

Grayson Rodriguez4+ 67%6+ 27%8+ 6%

Brayan Bello4+ 59%6+ 22%8+ 4%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Los Angeles Angels — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Zach Neto	4.8	.696	.218	.021	.150	.378	1.251	.249	.324	.412	.736
Mike Trout	4.7	.643	.166	.008	.167	.693	1.237	.249	.369	.422	.790
Wade Meckler	4.6	.887	.210	.018	.051	.441	.929	.282	.355	.378	.733
Vaughn Grissom	4.5	.797	.222	.004	.086	.296	.838	.268	.327	.385	.712
Moisés Ballesteros	4.4	.760	.199	.008	.094	.357	.810	.265	.329	.389	.719
Christian Moore	4.3	.623	.155	.032	.086	.426	1.259	.235	.318	.360	.678
Josh Lowe	4.2	.643	.193	.013	.110	.338	1.113	.251	.315	.394	.709
Kyren Paris	4.1	.527	.143	.016	.093	.376	1.358	.213	.294	.337	.631
Tyler Heineman	4.0	.663	.125	.025	.046	.247	.744	.237	.301	.324	.625

Boston Red Sox — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Roman Anthony	4.7	.697	.213	.037	.138	.622	1.118	.272	.375	.447	.822
Mickey Gasper	4.5	.701	.220	.012	.130	.505	.818	.268	.359	.428	.787
Adley Rutschman	4.4	.689	.203	.020	.121	.521	.699	.266	.357	.423	.780
Wilyer Abreu	4.3	.594	.201	.023	.173	.482	.962	.260	.347	.461	.808
Trevor Story	4.2	.643	.195	.007	.119	.260	1.168	.246	.299	.390	.690
Caleb Durbin	4.1	.677	.203	.014	.096	.333	.518	.269	.346	.410	.755
Jarren Duran	4.0	.563	.180	.056	.108	.334	.996	.251	.322	.421	.742
Isiah Kiner-Falefa	3.9	.774	.154	.018	.044	.243	.624	.275	.329	.365	.694
Eli White	3.8	.612	.134	.026	.108	.257	.906	.253	.313	.400	.713

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections