Los Angeles Angels vs Boston Red Sox — Prediction & Odds

September 9, 2026 · Ryan Johnson vs Jake Bennett · 75°F

6.7% edge · Los Angeles Angels

Los Angeles Angels win

40.5%

Boston Red Sox win

59.5%

Fair line (home)

-147

Proj. total

8.38

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Los Angeles Angels (mean 3.86)Boston Red Sox (mean 4.51)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

8.38

Over

35.0%

Under

54.8%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Los Angeles Angels	40.5%	+189	+147
Boston Red Sox	59.5%	-208	-147

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Ryan Johnson RHP · Los Angeles Angels	4.2	3.3	4.6	1.7	2.1
Jake Bennett LHP · Boston Red Sox	5.4	5.3	5.4	1.4	2.2

Strikeout ladder

Ryan Johnson4+ 42%6+ 10%8+ 1%

Jake Bennett4+ 79%6+ 43%8+ 15%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Los Angeles Angels — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Zach Neto	4.7	.686	.214	.021	.168	.319	1.204	.252	.317	.428	.745
Mike Trout	4.6	.655	.169	.009	.177	.608	1.192	.256	.362	.437	.799
Jose Siri	4.5	.607	.176	.020	.148	.263	1.419	.226	.279	.384	.662
Vaughn Grissom	4.4	.783	.212	.004	.093	.262	.772	.268	.321	.391	.712
Christian Moore	4.3	.636	.161	.035	.089	.368	1.241	.237	.308	.365	.673
Kyren Paris	4.2	.549	.150	.018	.105	.356	1.360	.217	.290	.348	.638
Oswald Peraza	4.1	.635	.138	.018	.090	.207	1.062	.231	.282	.348	.630
Denzer Guzman	4.0	.619	.167	.010	.110	.239	1.007	.245	.296	.385	.681
Tyler Heineman	3.8	.657	.129	.017	.049	.207	.700	.240	.297	.327	.623

Boston Red Sox — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Roman Anthony	4.7	.718	.218	.036	.145	.641	1.024	.281	.386	.464	.850
Mickey Gasper	4.5	.701	.211	.011	.128	.516	.742	.266	.360	.422	.782
Wilyer Abreu	4.4	.619	.226	.024	.185	.500	.891	.270	.357	.482	.838
Trevor Story	4.3	.675	.198	.005	.134	.258	1.095	.252	.303	.403	.706
Nick Sogard	4.2	.686	.181	.017	.059	.463	.815	.253	.341	.358	.699
Caleb Durbin	4.1	.678	.203	.018	.098	.332	.470	.271	.347	.415	.762
Jarren Duran	4.0	.564	.191	.060	.123	.344	.915	.260	.331	.448	.779
Isiah Kiner-Falefa	3.9	.773	.150	.018	.049	.249	.556	.275	.329	.367	.696
Nate Eaton	3.8	.571	.166	.025	.089	.270	.877	.246	.308	.386	.694

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections