Kansas City Royals vs Boston Red Sox — Prediction & Odds

September 12, 2026 · Randy Dobnak vs Ranger Suarez · 69°F

4.5% edge · Kansas City Royals

Kansas City Royals win

38.0%

Boston Red Sox win

62.0%

Fair line (home)

-163

Proj. total

9.32

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Kansas City Royals (mean 4.11)Boston Red Sox (mean 5.22)

Totals

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

9.32

Over

53.9%

Under

46.1%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Kansas City Royals	38.0%	+192	+163
Boston Red Sox	62.0%	-212	-163

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Randy Dobnak RHP · Kansas City Royals	4.7	2.7	5.9	2.2	2.8
Ranger Suarez LHP · Boston Red Sox	5.0	4.2	5.3	1.4	2.1

Strikeout ladder

Randy Dobnak4+ 30%6+ 5%8+ 1%

Ranger Suarez4+ 63%6+ 24%8+ 5%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Kansas City Royals — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Carter Jensen	4.8	.646	.226	.028	.137	.444	1.302	.242	.317	.403	.720
Bobby Witt Jr.	4.7	.826	.259	.030	.137	.390	.807	.296	.360	.469	.829
Salvador Perez	4.5	.742	.195	.007	.142	.201	.930	.254	.299	.403	.702
Vinnie Pasquantino	4.4	.686	.217	.020	.134	.407	.699	.265	.338	.430	.768
Nick Loftin	4.3	.691	.193	.028	.069	.389	.721	.252	.328	.369	.697
Michael Massey	4.2	.758	.223	.016	.089	.196	.753	.271	.309	.401	.709
John Rave	4.1	.604	.174	.031	.080	.359	1.009	.238	.309	.365	.674
Matthew Lugo	4.0	.575	.177	.035	.080	.213	1.153	.231	.279	.361	.640
Kyle Isbel	3.9	.646	.176	.037	.050	.236	.831	.252	.303	.363	.666

Boston Red Sox — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Roman Anthony	4.8	.821	.252	.049	.115	.663	.896	.303	.405	.473	.878
Mickey Gasper	4.7	.811	.246	.015	.106	.523	.607	.289	.381	.435	.817
Adley Rutschman	4.6	.777	.238	.026	.115	.526	.515	.289	.376	.448	.824
Wilyer Abreu	4.5	.709	.249	.029	.146	.498	.726	.288	.372	.478	.850
Trevor Story	4.3	.783	.234	.007	.106	.262	.911	.280	.332	.420	.752
Nick Sogard	4.2	.765	.212	.020	.046	.475	.670	.280	.367	.385	.752
Jarren Duran	4.1	.643	.219	.073	.101	.352	.787	.278	.349	.458	.806
Caleb Durbin	4.0	.718	.228	.016	.081	.334	.370	.291	.369	.432	.801
Anthony Seigler	3.9	.623	.202	.035	.058	.456	.589	.269	.361	.399	.760

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections