Kansas City Royals vs Boston Red Sox — Prediction & Odds

September 11, 2026 · Seth Lugo vs Sonny Gray · 72°F

6.7% edge · Kansas City Royals

Kansas City Royals win

42.0%

Boston Red Sox win

58.0%

Fair line (home)

-138

Proj. total

9.12

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Kansas City Royals (mean 4.25)Boston Red Sox (mean 4.87)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

9.12

Over

51.6%

Under

40.7%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Kansas City Royals	42.0%	+178	+138
Boston Red Sox	58.0%	-195	-138

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Seth Lugo RHP · Kansas City Royals	5.1	3.9	6.0	2.0	2.7
Sonny Gray RHP · Boston Red Sox	5.4	4.9	5.7	1.4	2.3

Strikeout ladder

Seth Lugo4+ 55%6+ 20%8+ 4%

Sonny Gray4+ 74%6+ 36%8+ 11%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Kansas City Royals — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Carter Jensen	4.8	.648	.228	.027	.150	.433	1.353	.243	.315	.412	.727
Bobby Witt Jr.	4.7	.825	.263	.029	.152	.367	.849	.297	.357	.479	.836
Vinnie Pasquantino	4.6	.723	.222	.021	.136	.392	.787	.266	.334	.428	.762
Salvador Perez	4.5	.738	.189	.008	.150	.184	.955	.257	.299	.413	.712
Michael Massey	4.3	.762	.243	.016	.101	.190	.820	.271	.306	.410	.717
John Rave	4.2	.625	.185	.035	.089	.347	1.092	.241	.307	.376	.683
Nick Loftin	4.1	.667	.200	.029	.064	.351	.725	.257	.328	.377	.705
Kyle Isbel	4.0	.671	.175	.043	.059	.225	.916	.252	.300	.368	.668
Isaac Collins	3.9	.591	.179	.031	.053	.387	.921	.245	.328	.360	.688

Boston Red Sox — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Roman Anthony	4.7	.766	.241	.044	.132	.587	1.038	.289	.384	.467	.851
Mickey Gasper	4.6	.773	.228	.015	.122	.479	.691	.281	.368	.436	.804
Adley Rutschman	4.5	.748	.228	.022	.122	.480	.608	.280	.362	.440	.801
Wilyer Abreu	4.4	.666	.226	.029	.164	.459	.835	.278	.357	.477	.834
Trevor Story	4.3	.720	.216	.006	.125	.240	1.035	.267	.316	.418	.734
Nick Sogard	4.2	.722	.195	.018	.056	.435	.757	.268	.350	.376	.726
Caleb Durbin	4.1	.710	.215	.015	.095	.321	.439	.284	.358	.430	.788
Jarren Duran	4.0	.597	.197	.061	.106	.314	.882	.268	.335	.446	.780
Isiah Kiner-Falefa	3.8	.816	.173	.015	.044	.222	.512	.294	.343	.388	.731

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections