Cleveland Guardians vs Boston Red Sox — Prediction & Odds

September 23, 2026 · Foster Griffin vs Sonny Gray · 56°F

3.2% edge · Cleveland Guardians

Cleveland Guardians win

46.6%

Boston Red Sox win

53.4%

Fair line (home)

-115

Proj. total

7.88

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Cleveland Guardians (mean 3.90)Boston Red Sox (mean 3.98)

Totals

O/U line

6.5

Proj. total

7.88

Over

60.0%

Under

40.0%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Cleveland Guardians	46.6%	+126	+115
Boston Red Sox	53.4%	-137	-115

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Foster Griffin LHP · Cleveland Guardians	5.2	4.8	5.5	1.5	2.2
Sonny Gray RHP · Boston Red Sox	5.4	4.8	5.5	1.6	2.1

Strikeout ladder

Foster Griffin4+ 72%6+ 34%8+ 10%

Sonny Gray4+ 72%6+ 34%8+ 10%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Cleveland Guardians — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Steven Kwan	4.8	.956	.192	.017	.047	.464	.518	.284	.358	.370	.728
José Ramírez	4.7	.752	.230	.011	.135	.397	.665	.267	.334	.422	.755
Chase DeLauter	4.5	.806	.224	.027	.107	.411	.773	.283	.351	.429	.780
Jo Adell	4.4	.623	.177	.013	.154	.237	1.231	.234	.286	.394	.680
Travis Bazzana	4.3	.626	.190	.028	.083	.433	1.073	.240	.322	.368	.690
Nathaniel Lowe	4.2	.664	.159	.007	.104	.415	1.119	.247	.325	.375	.700
Patrick Bailey	4.1	.617	.137	.019	.066	.285	1.198	.220	.279	.317	.596
Petey Halpin	4.0	.606	.135	.033	.067	.229	1.068	.224	.272	.331	.603
Brayan Rocchio	3.9	.627	.166	.020	.064	.252	.711	.246	.307	.358	.665

Boston Red Sox — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Roman Anthony	4.6	.699	.212	.034	.113	.500	1.196	.262	.349	.415	.763
Nick Sogard	4.5	.736	.199	.011	.053	.385	.997	.247	.321	.342	.662
Jahmai Jones	4.4	.606	.180	.033	.120	.391	1.208	.242	.323	.398	.721
Wilyer Abreu	4.3	.603	.204	.020	.136	.408	.991	.252	.329	.423	.752
Adley Rutschman	4.2	.654	.201	.013	.094	.387	.698	.257	.331	.394	.725
Ceddanne Rafaela	4.0	.701	.201	.023	.093	.163	.868	.266	.305	.404	.709
Caleb Durbin	3.9	.661	.200	.012	.077	.282	.527	.269	.343	.399	.742
Trevor Story	3.8	.595	.170	.004	.091	.196	1.104	.240	.286	.366	.652
Andruw Monasterio	3.7	.622	.182	.009	.055	.281	.818	.258	.323	.366	.689

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections