Cleveland Guardians vs Boston Red Sox — Prediction & Odds

September 22, 2026 · Parker Messick vs Payton Tolle · 56°F

2.5% edge · Cleveland Guardians

Cleveland Guardians win

48.5%

Boston Red Sox win

51.5%

Fair line (home)

-106

Proj. total

7.48

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Cleveland Guardians (mean 3.79)Boston Red Sox (mean 3.68)

Totals

O/U line

6.5

Proj. total

7.48

Over

55.3%

Under

44.7%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Cleveland Guardians	48.5%	+113	+106
Boston Red Sox	51.5%	-123	-106

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Parker Messick LHP · Cleveland Guardians	5.4	5.2	5.2	1.8	2.1
Payton Tolle LHP · Boston Red Sox	5.4	5.1	5.0	1.6	2.0

Strikeout ladder

Parker Messick4+ 79%6+ 42%8+ 14%

Payton Tolle4+ 76%6+ 40%8+ 13%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Cleveland Guardians — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Steven Kwan	4.7	.883	.182	.018	.061	.499	.571	.273	.355	.369	.724
José Ramírez	4.6	.716	.213	.007	.143	.396	.723	.258	.327	.414	.741
Chase DeLauter	4.5	.756	.208	.022	.123	.441	.823	.274	.348	.428	.776
Jo Adell	4.4	.585	.161	.010	.167	.257	1.284	.226	.283	.392	.675
Angel Martínez	4.3	.613	.190	.014	.108	.180	1.086	.228	.270	.362	.632
David Fry	4.2	.494	.156	.008	.116	.381	1.289	.206	.287	.344	.631
Travis Bazzana	4.1	.555	.153	.024	.089	.435	1.073	.228	.318	.358	.676
Austin Hedges	4.0	.540	.117	.004	.079	.318	1.055	.205	.275	.305	.580
Brayan Rocchio	3.8	.597	.149	.014	.067	.247	.760	.235	.298	.342	.640

Boston Red Sox — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Roman Anthony	4.5	.662	.202	.032	.112	.533	1.250	.253	.345	.403	.749
Nick Sogard	4.4	.691	.188	.011	.045	.408	1.069	.234	.312	.321	.633
Jahmai Jones	4.3	.578	.170	.029	.107	.413	1.279	.230	.317	.373	.690
Wilyer Abreu	4.2	.551	.183	.022	.141	.436	1.039	.237	.320	.409	.729
Adley Rutschman	4.1	.626	.195	.012	.099	.408	.759	.252	.330	.391	.722
Caleb Durbin	4.0	.655	.199	.012	.078	.314	.574	.261	.338	.388	.726
Andruw Monasterio	3.9	.617	.182	.009	.058	.310	.921	.242	.310	.347	.657
Isiah Kiner-Falefa	3.8	.719	.142	.015	.035	.220	.693	.257	.308	.335	.643
Nate Eaton	3.7	.528	.153	.017	.063	.228	.994	.224	.280	.334	.615

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections