Kansas City Royals vs Boston Red Sox — Prediction & Odds

September 13, 2026 · Noah Cameron vs Payton Tolle · 67°F

1.9% edge · Kansas City Royals

Kansas City Royals win

38.1%

Boston Red Sox win

61.9%

Fair line (home)

-162

Proj. total

8.45

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Kansas City Royals (mean 3.75)Boston Red Sox (mean 4.71)

Totals

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

8.45

Over

52.5%

Under

47.5%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Kansas City Royals	38.1%	+170	+162
Boston Red Sox	61.9%	-187	-162

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Noah Cameron LHP · Kansas City Royals	5.2	4.8	5.7	2.1	2.6
Payton Tolle LHP · Boston Red Sox	5.4	5.7	5.0	1.4	2.0

Strikeout ladder

Noah Cameron4+ 72%6+ 34%8+ 10%

Payton Tolle4+ 84%6+ 51%8+ 20%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Kansas City Royals — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Nick Loftin	4.7	.677	.201	.030	.087	.429	.899	.237	.315	.361	.676
Bobby Witt Jr.	4.6	.746	.241	.023	.164	.381	.906	.282	.348	.470	.817
Jac Caglianone	4.5	.671	.206	.021	.180	.287	1.228	.260	.315	.450	.765
Salvador Perez	4.4	.652	.167	.006	.161	.195	1.009	.240	.286	.402	.687
Michael Massey	4.3	.691	.209	.012	.111	.201	.872	.254	.293	.394	.687
Matthew Lugo	4.2	.543	.178	.037	.100	.217	1.338	.220	.267	.361	.628
Isaac Collins	4.0	.586	.166	.020	.054	.400	1.027	.230	.316	.333	.650
Luke Maile	3.9	.517	.141	.011	.055	.348	1.248	.205	.284	.297	.581
Tyler Tolbert	3.8	.606	.153	.012	.043	.235	1.024	.230	.285	.317	.602

Boston Red Sox — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Roman Anthony	4.7	.724	.231	.041	.129	.613	1.087	.279	.379	.453	.832
Jahmai Jones	4.6	.680	.211	.038	.139	.453	1.086	.265	.351	.441	.792
Wilyer Abreu	4.5	.641	.230	.026	.165	.480	.903	.269	.352	.466	.818
Willson Contreras	4.3	.643	.201	.022	.175	.458	1.006	.276	.373	.480	.853
Adley Rutschman	4.3	.691	.217	.013	.110	.446	.617	.273	.355	.426	.780
Trevor Story	4.1	.678	.213	.005	.110	.231	1.071	.259	.307	.402	.709
Caleb Durbin	4.0	.708	.206	.014	.091	.315	.466	.281	.355	.421	.776
Nick Sogard	3.9	.668	.173	.013	.050	.394	.770	.259	.340	.359	.699
Nate Eaton	3.8	.608	.163	.023	.078	.249	.868	.249	.306	.375	.681

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections