Cleveland Guardians vs Boston Red Sox — Prediction & Odds

September 24, 2026 · Daniel Espino vs Ranger Suarez · 56°F

3.1% edge · Cleveland Guardians

Cleveland Guardians win

49.2%

Boston Red Sox win

50.8%

Fair line (home)

-103

Proj. total

7.7

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Cleveland Guardians (mean 3.93)Boston Red Sox (mean 3.77)

Totals

O/U line

6.5

Proj. total

7.7

Over

57.8%

Under

42.2%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Cleveland Guardians	49.2%	+113	+103
Boston Red Sox	50.8%	-122	-103

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Daniel Espino RHP · Cleveland Guardians	2.1	2.3	1.9	1.0	0.8
Ranger Suarez LHP · Boston Red Sox	5.1	4.0	5.2	1.5	2.0

Strikeout ladder

Daniel Espino4+ 17%6+ 1%8+ 0%

Ranger Suarez4+ 59%6+ 21%8+ 4%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Cleveland Guardians — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Steven Kwan	4.8	.952	.191	.019	.043	.484	.488	.283	.360	.367	.727
José Ramírez	4.7	.764	.230	.009	.128	.394	.621	.267	.335	.417	.751
Chase DeLauter	4.5	.814	.227	.022	.102	.426	.717	.284	.354	.425	.779
Jo Adell	4.4	.630	.176	.010	.142	.266	1.159	.234	.292	.385	.677
Angel Martínez	4.3	.691	.206	.014	.091	.185	.987	.245	.286	.369	.655
David Fry	4.2	.536	.166	.007	.102	.386	1.171	.214	.295	.343	.638
Travis Bazzana	4.1	.595	.172	.030	.085	.427	.990	.242	.327	.375	.702
Patrick Bailey	4.0	.608	.131	.013	.064	.275	1.134	.220	.280	.315	.594
Brayan Rocchio	3.9	.632	.178	.013	.062	.238	.682	.247	.306	.356	.662

Boston Red Sox — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Nick Sogard	4.6	.677	.170	.015	.050	.546	1.114	.228	.327	.315	.642
Mickey Gasper	4.5	.627	.183	.010	.108	.537	.925	.242	.347	.380	.727
Adley Rutschman	4.4	.611	.192	.015	.099	.537	.795	.242	.340	.378	.718
Wilyer Abreu	4.3	.547	.191	.018	.137	.506	1.063	.240	.334	.411	.745
Caleb Durbin	4.2	.654	.178	.013	.082	.390	.606	.254	.345	.377	.722
Ceddanne Rafaela	4.0	.638	.190	.026	.097	.205	.966	.250	.298	.390	.689
Jarren Duran	3.9	.520	.163	.053	.087	.343	1.121	.231	.307	.380	.686
Trevor Story	3.8	.545	.166	.003	.092	.241	1.191	.227	.283	.353	.636
Isiah Kiner-Falefa	3.7	.683	.136	.014	.032	.244	.687	.254	.312	.330	.642

Data notes: away starter Daniel Espino: only 28 BF vs LHB this season · away starter Daniel Espino: only 31 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections