Chicago Cubs vs Boston Red Sox — Prediction & Odds

September 25, 2026 · David Peterson vs Brayan Bello · 61°F

1.4% edge · Chicago Cubs

Chicago Cubs win

53.0%

Boston Red Sox win

47.0%

Fair line (home)

+113

Proj. total

8.59

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Chicago Cubs (mean 4.57)Boston Red Sox (mean 4.02)

Totals

O/U line

6.5

Proj. total

8.59

Over

65.4%

Under

34.6%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Chicago Cubs	53.0%	-111	-113
Boston Red Sox	47.0%	+103	+113

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
David Peterson LHP · Chicago Cubs	4.6	4.5	4.8	2.0	2.0
Brayan Bello RHP · Boston Red Sox	4.3	3.7	4.8	1.7	2.1

Strikeout ladder

David Peterson4+ 67%6+ 29%8+ 7%

Brayan Bello4+ 51%6+ 15%8+ 3%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Chicago Cubs — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Pete Crow-Armstrong	4.9	.708	.208	.050	.190	.414	1.215	.261	.334	.460	.795
Seiya Suzuki	4.8	.728	.219	.018	.149	.533	1.190	.263	.350	.429	.779
Michael Busch	4.7	.662	.193	.022	.137	.550	1.115	.250	.349	.410	.759
Michael Conforto	4.6	.629	.186	.007	.125	.507	1.137	.237	.334	.381	.715
Ian Happ	4.5	.591	.187	.018	.113	.546	1.175	.234	.336	.379	.715
Nico Hoerner	4.4	.933	.204	.016	.041	.299	.395	.298	.357	.388	.745
Pedro Ramírez	4.3	.803	.179	.036	.072	.268	.807	.276	.329	.394	.723
Carson Kelly	4.2	.688	.144	.006	.088	.388	.772	.250	.329	.364	.692
Matt Shaw	4.0	.617	.159	.037	.090	.375	.785	.251	.329	.391	.720

Boston Red Sox — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Roman Anthony	4.7	.697	.210	.034	.111	.647	1.121	.264	.372	.418	.790
Jahmai Jones	4.5	.642	.178	.034	.116	.502	1.189	.244	.340	.394	.734
Wilyer Abreu	4.4	.611	.205	.021	.145	.531	.963	.253	.346	.428	.774
Trevor Story	4.3	.663	.203	.004	.105	.277	1.187	.243	.297	.374	.671
Nick Sogard	4.2	.683	.165	.012	.048	.458	.897	.244	.333	.334	.667
Andruw Monasterio	4.1	.671	.206	.013	.057	.400	.853	.258	.337	.367	.705
Jarren Duran	4.0	.561	.179	.057	.090	.352	.986	.245	.320	.401	.721
Isiah Kiner-Falefa	3.9	.759	.148	.014	.034	.260	.640	.265	.322	.343	.664
Connor Wong	3.8	.592	.176	.007	.067	.300	.924	.245	.316	.359	.675

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections