Chicago Cubs vs Boston Red Sox — Prediction & Odds

September 25, 2026 · Clay Holmes vs Alec Gamboa · 60°F

7.2% edge · Boston Red Sox

Chicago Cubs win

46.7%

Boston Red Sox win

53.3%

Fair line (home)

-114

Proj. total

8.8

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Chicago Cubs (mean 4.34)Boston Red Sox (mean 4.46)

Totals

O/U line

6.5

Proj. total

8.8

Over

67.1%

Under

32.9%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Chicago Cubs	46.7%	-122	+114
Boston Red Sox	53.3%	+113	-114

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Clay Holmes RHP · Chicago Cubs	5.0	3.7	5.5	2.5	2.5
Alec Gamboa LHP · Boston Red Sox	2.1	1.6	2.2	0.9	0.9

Strikeout ladder

Clay Holmes4+ 52%6+ 17%8+ 3%

Alec Gamboa4+ 7%6+ 0%8+ 0%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Chicago Cubs — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Pete Crow-Armstrong	4.9	.678	.190	.045	.181	.440	1.225	.251	.328	.440	.767
Seiya Suzuki	4.7	.674	.201	.017	.140	.592	1.188	.250	.348	.409	.757
Alex Bregman	4.6	.717	.185	.013	.120	.541	.709	.257	.352	.399	.751
Tyrone Taylor	4.5	.677	.228	.018	.101	.262	.977	.245	.300	.380	.680
Nico Hoerner	4.4	.907	.196	.015	.044	.318	.432	.288	.347	.376	.723
Matt Shaw	4.3	.639	.159	.037	.100	.444	.860	.245	.329	.384	.714
Michael Busch	4.2	.553	.162	.019	.118	.523	1.038	.235	.341	.388	.728
Dansby Swanson	4.1	.603	.146	.023	.103	.407	1.027	.238	.318	.375	.693
Miguel Amaya	4.0	.580	.156	.007	.085	.340	.968	.232	.312	.352	.664

Boston Red Sox — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Roman Anthony	4.7	.741	.222	.033	.101	.658	1.092	.272	.379	.419	.798
Mickey Gasper	4.6	.730	.217	.011	.103	.566	.752	.267	.370	.405	.775
Adley Rutschman	4.5	.712	.216	.020	.095	.548	.660	.265	.358	.402	.760
Wilyer Abreu	4.4	.630	.215	.021	.127	.524	.899	.258	.350	.424	.774
Caleb Durbin	4.3	.736	.207	.013	.077	.374	.493	.272	.356	.395	.751
Nick Sogard	4.2	.681	.177	.017	.044	.488	.835	.251	.345	.345	.690
Jarren Duran	4.1	.584	.185	.061	.080	.355	.963	.248	.323	.398	.722
Andruw Monasterio	4.0	.671	.201	.010	.056	.380	.772	.265	.344	.376	.720
Isiah Kiner-Falefa	3.9	.764	.157	.016	.033	.254	.590	.273	.330	.354	.683

Data notes: home starter Alec Gamboa: only 44 BF vs LHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections