Toronto Blue Jays vs Chicago Cubs — Prediction & Odds

August 6, 2026 · Dylan Cease vs David Peterson · 73°F

0.1% edge · Toronto Blue Jays

Toronto Blue Jays win

50.6%

Chicago Cubs win

49.4%

Fair line (home)

+102

Proj. total

8.56

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Toronto Blue Jays (mean 4.44)Chicago Cubs (mean 4.12)

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

8.56

Over

54.1%

Under

45.9%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Toronto Blue Jays	50.6%	-106	-102
Chicago Cubs	49.4%	-102	+102

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Myles Straw	4.9	.842	.190	.015	.045	.435	.853	.247	.319	.328	.647
Kazuma Okamoto	4.8	.650	.188	.006	.203	.448	1.046	.246	.326	.436	.762
Alejandro Kirk	4.6	.796	.182	.006	.121	.526	.550	.271	.359	.407	.766
George Springer	4.5	.676	.165	.013	.158	.510	.838	.254	.346	.421	.767
Nathan Lukes	4.4	.817	.207	.015	.081	.401	.639	.280	.351	.400	.751
Ernie Clement	4.3	.821	.218	.016	.083	.209	.400	.278	.318	.400	.719
Luis Urías	4.2	.640	.153	.009	.098	.447	.675	.244	.338	.370	.708
Davis Schneider	4.1	.460	.149	.009	.118	.657	1.136	.216	.350	.369	.719
Andrés Giménez	4.0	.670	.165	.014	.082	.237	.694	.253	.313	.373	.686

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Pete Crow-Armstrong	4.6	.628	.175	.036	.182	.373	1.375	.244	.314	.434	.747
Seiya Suzuki	4.5	.582	.176	.012	.165	.530	1.350	.237	.332	.414	.745
Michael Busch	4.4	.539	.157	.023	.159	.570	1.260	.233	.341	.413	.754
Alex Bregman	4.3	.625	.161	.010	.122	.536	.771	.248	.350	.395	.745
Ian Happ	4.2	.495	.150	.013	.128	.573	1.282	.219	.332	.375	.707
Nico Hoerner	4.1	.774	.181	.012	.055	.334	.476	.276	.344	.376	.720
Michael Conforto	4.0	.480	.142	.006	.123	.471	1.195	.216	.316	.368	.683
Dansby Swanson	3.9	.509	.118	.017	.116	.374	1.120	.219	.298	.364	.662
Miguel Amaya	3.7	.505	.145	.006	.093	.345	.955	.225	.308	.355	.663

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections