St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs — Prediction & Odds

July 3, 2026 · Andre Pallante vs David Peterson · 74°F

3.2% edge · Chicago Cubs

St. Louis Cardinals win

42.9%

Chicago Cubs win

57.1%

Fair line (home)

-133

Proj. total

9.26

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

St. Louis Cardinals (mean 4.39)Chicago Cubs (mean 4.87)

O/U line

Proj. total

9.26

Over

27.8%

Under

63.7%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
St. Louis Cardinals	42.9%	+113	+133
Chicago Cubs	57.1%	-122	-133

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
JJ Wetherholt	4.8	.802	.188	.009	.115	.528	.804	.263	.357	.394	.751
Iván Herrera	4.7	.786	.182	.014	.124	.568	.842	.273	.377	.416	.793
Jordan Walker	4.6	.702	.194	.010	.149	.392	1.174	.251	.322	.409	.731
Nelson Velázquez	4.5	.571	.159	.012	.154	.430	1.220	.222	.303	.381	.685
Alec Burleson	4.4	.778	.182	.008	.148	.379	.626	.279	.345	.439	.784
Masyn Winn	4.3	.704	.185	.021	.078	.366	.768	.254	.326	.372	.698
José Fermín	4.2	.656	.181	.007	.067	.487	.572	.249	.348	.358	.706
Blaze Jordan	4.1	.673	.184	.009	.092	.241	.554	.252	.302	.377	.680
Nathan Church	4.0	.686	.152	.014	.072	.260	.632	.252	.308	.360	.668

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Pete Crow-Armstrong	4.8	.788	.218	.053	.156	.330	.935	.279	.340	.461	.801
Alex Bregman	4.6	.809	.197	.017	.118	.537	.534	.282	.372	.426	.799
Michael Busch	4.5	.674	.201	.036	.148	.582	.892	.273	.375	.457	.832
Seiya Suzuki	4.4	.724	.191	.021	.134	.526	.919	.277	.368	.442	.810
Ian Happ	4.3	.607	.182	.018	.122	.609	.943	.254	.366	.413	.779
Nico Hoerner	4.2	.904	.206	.015	.044	.331	.277	.307	.371	.403	.774
Michael Conforto	4.1	.606	.180	.008	.099	.482	.881	.250	.348	.389	.736
Carson Kelly	4.0	.698	.145	.009	.089	.411	.623	.266	.349	.387	.737
Dansby Swanson	3.9	.627	.145	.017	.098	.395	.790	.257	.336	.393	.730

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections