St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs — Prediction & Odds

July 4, 2026 · Kyle Leahy vs Shota Imanaga · 69°F

2.6% edge · St. Louis Cardinals

St. Louis Cardinals win

42.9%

Chicago Cubs win

57.1%

Fair line (home)

-133

Proj. total

9.05

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

St. Louis Cardinals (mean 4.30)Chicago Cubs (mean 4.75)

O/U line

Proj. total

9.05

Over

44.3%

Under

47.6%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
St. Louis Cardinals	42.9%	+143	+133
Chicago Cubs	57.1%	-156	-133

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
JJ Wetherholt	4.8	.763	.178	.007	.158	.406	.827	.258	.333	.414	.747
Iván Herrera	4.7	.762	.172	.014	.153	.440	.885	.267	.351	.427	.778
Jordan Walker	4.5	.679	.190	.009	.202	.289	1.189	.255	.308	.448	.756
Alec Burleson	4.4	.747	.188	.009	.191	.296	.650	.275	.328	.464	.792
Masyn Winn	4.3	.711	.176	.021	.095	.285	.799	.250	.306	.375	.681
José Fermín	4.2	.648	.184	.008	.090	.385	.587	.245	.324	.369	.693
Lars Nootbaar	4.1	.585	.154	.010	.142	.468	.828	.246	.336	.412	.747
Pedro Pagés	4.0	.558	.135	.006	.121	.224	1.026	.219	.269	.355	.624
Nathan Church	3.9	.671	.143	.013	.088	.211	.655	.252	.299	.371	.669

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Pete Crow-Armstrong	4.7	.754	.206	.049	.168	.323	.980	.273	.333	.460	.793
Alex Bregman	4.6	.757	.189	.013	.123	.524	.577	.270	.362	.415	.777
Michael Busch	4.5	.653	.192	.031	.159	.569	.926	.268	.369	.457	.826
Seiya Suzuki	4.4	.681	.187	.020	.151	.517	.938	.272	.363	.450	.812
Ian Happ	4.3	.590	.180	.019	.129	.592	.960	.252	.362	.419	.781
Nico Hoerner	4.2	.861	.192	.015	.052	.334	.297	.296	.362	.395	.757
Michael Conforto	4.1	.581	.172	.008	.117	.480	.898	.248	.346	.401	.747
Miguel Amaya	4.0	.608	.165	.009	.094	.356	.698	.248	.330	.380	.709
Dansby Swanson	3.8	.603	.141	.018	.102	.400	.822	.253	.334	.393	.727

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections