St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs — Prediction & Odds

July 5, 2026 · Matthew Liberatore vs Javier Assad · 68°F

5.3% edge · St. Louis Cardinals

St. Louis Cardinals win

47.8%

Chicago Cubs win

52.2%

Fair line (home)

-109

Proj. total

9.14

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

St. Louis Cardinals (mean 4.64)Chicago Cubs (mean 4.51)

O/U line

Proj. total

9.14

Over

44.5%

Under

48.0%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
St. Louis Cardinals	47.8%	+130	+109
Chicago Cubs	52.2%	-142	-109

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
JJ Wetherholt	4.9	.801	.182	.008	.139	.529	.770	.262	.355	.405	.760
Iván Herrera	4.8	.793	.181	.013	.130	.574	.806	.270	.373	.415	.787
Alec Burleson	4.7	.830	.199	.010	.157	.401	.632	.280	.347	.442	.788
Jordan Walker	4.6	.701	.204	.008	.159	.371	1.119	.257	.323	.424	.747
Lars Nootbaar	4.5	.637	.171	.012	.125	.623	.827	.247	.356	.396	.752
Masyn Winn	4.4	.711	.185	.023	.082	.360	.746	.253	.323	.373	.696
Nathan Church	4.3	.761	.159	.013	.083	.270	.654	.257	.312	.367	.679
José Fermín	4.1	.651	.178	.006	.071	.468	.527	.251	.346	.362	.708
Bryan Torres	4.0	.722	.143	.021	.041	.485	.691	.263	.356	.350	.706

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Pete Crow-Armstrong	4.7	.717	.200	.043	.169	.317	1.020	.263	.323	.448	.771
Alex Bregman	4.5	.744	.193	.013	.133	.512	.569	.272	.362	.427	.789
Seiya Suzuki	4.4	.668	.182	.019	.171	.519	.997	.268	.358	.456	.814
Carson Kelly	4.3	.713	.152	.011	.110	.421	.755	.255	.336	.385	.721
Michael Busch	4.2	.585	.168	.029	.155	.525	.921	.256	.356	.445	.801
Nico Hoerner	4.1	.853	.192	.015	.050	.312	.308	.295	.357	.393	.750
Ian Happ	4.0	.534	.162	.010	.128	.505	.952	.239	.341	.401	.743
Dansby Swanson	3.9	.594	.140	.015	.103	.392	.882	.244	.323	.382	.705
Kevin Alcántara	3.8	.538	.145	.005	.111	.323	1.127	.232	.302	.374	.676

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections